106
FXUS64 KLZK 260523
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1223 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY, EXPECT MOSTLY BENIGN CONDNS TO
PREVAIL W/ SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING. THRU THE NIGHT TONIGHT, BROAD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST WL SAG SWRD INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU
AND LOWER MS VALLEY, W/ THE LEADING EDGE OF A BACKDOOR CDFRNT
REACHING NRN CNTRL AR BY SAT MRNG. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP
ACRS THE SRN AND S/WRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AS WELL.
COVG OF PRECIP ON SAT WL LKLY BE BOUNDED BY THIS SFC BNDRY, MAINLY
ACRS CNTRL TO SRN AR, WHERE MORE UNSTABLE AND FAVORABLE CONDNS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. BASED ON RECENT CAM GUIDANCE, A FEW
STRONGER STORMS COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE FA ON SAT AFTN, W/ CLUSTERS
OF STORMS LKLY CONSOLIDATING INTO A SMALL LINEAR SYSTEM THRU SAT
EVNG, THOUGH A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR
NOW.
SUN AND THRU NEAR MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK, MORE SETTLED CONDNS LOOK TO
PREVAIL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC CDFRNT BEGINS TO CLEAR THE STATE TO
THE S/W, AND UPPER LVL RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE CNTRL US.
ALONGSIDE DRIER CONDNS, MUCH WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED, AS MOST
AREAS WL CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
BY TUES NEXT WEEK, A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO UNFOLD AS MEAN
H500 TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS. S/WRLY FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED ACRS THE SRN CNTRL US AND LOWER MS VALLEY, W/
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROFS EXPECTED TO PIVOT AROUND THE MEAN
LONGWAVE TROF. AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
POSSIBLE ON TUES, PRIMARILY ACRS THE N/WRN HALF OF THE STATE, WHERE
A SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS PROGGED AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING CDFRNT. FOR NOW, ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS APPEAR
POSSIBLE, AS SUGGESTED BY THE LARGE SPC D5 15 PERCENT RISK
AREA, ALONGSIDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WED THRU FRI, THE AFOREMENTIONED TRAILING CDFRNT SHOULD WASH OUT OVER
THE OZARK PLATEAU TUES NIGHT/EARLY WED MRNG, RESULTING IN ANOTHER
STALLED SFC BNDRY, THAT WL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY REGION OF LOCAL
CONVERGENCE FOR MULTIPLE DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER. A FEW ROUNDS OF
DAILY THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL APPEAR POSSIBLE
ACRS THE N/WRN HALF OF THE STATE, W/ THE LAST FEW RUNS OF ENSEMBLE
MEAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITIES (30-40 PERCENT)
OF 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL OR GREATER, AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING GREATER AMOUNTS TOWARDS 4 TO 5 INCHES. THERE ARE STILL
DETAILS TO RESOLVE REGARDING RAINFALL MAGNITUDES AND ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES, BUT THE PATTERN BEARS MONITORING FOR MORE
HAZARDOUS AND IMPACTFUL WEATHER, STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
VFR CONDTIONS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE FA AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THRU EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT INCREASING LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT, RESULTING IN EXPANDING COVERAGE OF MVFR CIGS FROM WEST TO
EAST. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE SEEN AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 58 75 63 86 / 40 30 0 0
CAMDEN AR 63 86 65 88 / 20 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 57 74 62 82 / 50 30 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 62 83 64 86 / 40 20 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 63 81 66 87 / 40 20 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 67 87 68 89 / 20 20 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 62 84 65 86 / 30 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 56 72 62 84 / 50 40 0 0
NEWPORT AR 59 75 64 87 / 30 30 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 64 84 66 88 / 30 30 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 61 80 65 86 / 40 20 0 0
SEARCY AR 59 78 63 87 / 30 30 0 0
STUTTGART AR 64 81 68 87 / 20 30 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...56
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