275
FXUS64 KLZK 261142
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
642 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVERHEAD. ON THE SURFACE, A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BISECTING THE STATE ROUGHLY FROM FORT SMITH TO
MEMPHIS WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIR TO ITS NORTH. PATCHY FOG WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MID
MORNING BUT NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH BEFORE
STALLING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS WE HEAD
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE
LOCATION OF SAID BOUNDARY WITH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA HAVING
THE BETTER CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CAMS GUIDANCE, MOST NOTABLY THE HRRR SOLUTION, IS A BIT BULLISH ON
DEVELOPING A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONGER STORMS OVER EASTERN/CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, AIDED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCV FROM THIS MORNINGS
CONVECTION OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. GUIDANCE ALSO HAS THESE
CLUSTERS MORE OR LESS MORPHING INTO A LINEAR MODE AS THE STRONGEST
STORMS MOVE INTO WEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THE WEAKENING LINE WILL
CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TREK ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN POPS.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE MUCH
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA ONCE AGAIN WITH THE FRONT PULLING AWAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
STARTING TO TREND UP HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
MONDAY:
AT H500, A RIDGE WILL BE FIXATED OVER ARKANSAS AND THE MID-SOUTH
REGION OF THE CONUS. A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROF AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS TO OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN REGION OF THE CONUS. AT THE SFC, A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS WITH A CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MEANDERING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WHICH WILL ASSIST IN
ADVECTING RICH GULF MOISTURE ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES INTO
ARKANSAS.
EXPECT A DRY AND WARM BEGINNING TO THE WORKWEEK AS THE PROGRESSION
OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE STATE WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE TO VARY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S.
TEMPERATURES VALUES WITH BOTH RESPECT TO MORNING LOWS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL DUE TO
THE TANDEM OF UPPER LVL RIDGING AND THE WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE.
TUESDAY:
AT H500, A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
OVER THE UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER. A SECOND STREAM WILL BE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY NEARING ARKANSAS WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE STATE AND A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE PULSE THAT PASSES
WITHIN THE FLOW PATTERN AND A TROF THAT BEGINS TO DIG OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION OF THE CONUS. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THIS COLD FRONT SLOWING AS IT APPROACHES CENTRAL
ARKANSAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SPC (STORM PREDICTION CENTER) HAS
INCLUDED A 15% CONTOUR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS (EQUIVALENT TO A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER). HOWEVER, LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
WAFFLE ON WHERE TO PUT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WITH INCONSISTENCIES
ON WHETHER THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA OR
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL/NORTHERN ARKANSAS ON TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE
OVERALL REMAINS LOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER, BUT WILL LIKELY BE A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. IT REMAINS TOO EARLY FOR
SPECIFICS, BUT SEVERAL HAIL ANALOGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS MULTIPLE
MODELS AND RUNS FOR A SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL WITH FORECAST STEEP
LAPSE RATES FROM 700 TO 500 MB BETWEEN 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM. TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINT VALUES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
AS LOW TO UPPER 80S WILL OVERSPREAD A LARGE PORTION OF THE STATE
WITH RESPECT TO AIR TEMPERATURE ALONG WITH DEWPOINT VALUES WHICH
WILL BE PLENTIFUL IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE STATE. MY
THOUGHTS AT THIS POINT IS THAT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS HAVING SOME
ISSUES SORTING OUT THE EXACT TIMING OF THE LIFTING MECHANISM IN THIS
SCENARIO (THE COLD FRONT) AS TIMING AND PLACEMENT WILL BE PIVOTAL TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.
EXPECT AS MENTIONED ABOVE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS. REGARDLESS POPS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE STATE AND BEGINS TO SLOW DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. RAIN AND
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
BEGINNING FROM NORTHWEST MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON
TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY/FRIDAY:
THE OVERALL UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A SWT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW PATTERN OVER ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH AMPLIFIED
RIDGING NOTED INTO LATE WEEK ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH WILL
LEAD TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER ARKANSAS. AT THE SFC, A STATIONARY
FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL LIFT AS A WARM FRONT INTO MISSOURI DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND BRING LOW POPS TO THE CWA AND STATE OF ARKANSAS DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE POPS OVERALL BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY
BEGIN TO DROP DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES OVER THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
FOR LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY WITH EFFICIENT SOUTHERLY FLOW USHERING
IN WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE LIFTING WARM FRONT INTO MISSOURI
ON THURSDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL INTO FRIDAY AS
THE FROPA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NORMAL VALUES FOR
EARLY MAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT SEVERAL TERMINALS
THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES
WITH A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING. SHRA/RA WILL OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE OVERALL
CONDITIONS SLOWLY DETERIORATE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
FROM THE NE BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 77 57 75 63 / 10 50 50 0
CAMDEN AR 85 63 86 65 / 30 40 10 0
HARRISON AR 74 56 75 62 / 30 70 50 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 83 61 83 64 / 40 60 30 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 80 61 81 66 / 20 50 40 0
MONTICELLO AR 85 66 85 68 / 20 30 30 0
MOUNT IDA AR 84 61 84 65 / 50 60 20 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 74 55 73 62 / 10 60 50 0
NEWPORT AR 77 59 76 64 / 0 30 40 0
PINE BLUFF AR 83 63 83 67 / 20 40 40 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 81 61 80 65 / 30 60 30 0
SEARCY AR 79 58 78 63 / 10 40 50 0
STUTTGART AR 81 63 81 68 / 10 40 40 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...56
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