433
FXUS64 KLZK 150444
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1144 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST OF THE STATE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES PUSHING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING
A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE LATER THIS WEEK AS SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY WITH AN ACTIVE, WET PATTERN GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS SEEING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AS OF RIGHT NOW, TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES AFTER FRIDAY.
IN ADDITION TO SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL MAKE FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES
FEEL SLIGHTLY WARMER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S TO MID 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S TO MID
70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TERMINALS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND DECREASE VSBY TO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT AT ALL SITES OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST IN EXCESS OF 22 KNOTS ACROSS MOST
SITES FROM THURSDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 83 72 89 71 / 10 10 20 50
CAMDEN AR 91 70 90 73 / 0 0 10 10
HARRISON AR 83 70 86 63 / 10 0 20 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 89 72 89 72 / 0 0 10 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 89 72 88 73 / 0 10 10 40
MONTICELLO AR 91 72 91 75 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 90 72 88 72 / 0 0 10 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 80 70 88 64 / 10 10 20 30
NEWPORT AR 84 72 88 71 / 10 10 10 50
PINE BLUFF AR 90 72 90 74 / 0 10 10 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 90 72 89 70 / 0 10 20 40
SEARCY AR 86 70 88 71 / 10 10 10 50
STUTTGART AR 90 72 88 75 / 10 10 10 30
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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