834
FXUS64 KLZK 151016
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
516 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
THE THEME OF THE THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST FROM TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR BOTH
DAYS, ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT:
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER A LARGE PORTION OF ARKANSAS.
AT H500, A CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS, THE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER
ARKANSAS BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER ARKANSAS IS NOTED. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE THIS EVENING.
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE WITH A ROBUST
JET STREAK BEGINNING TO COME INTO FRUITION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER, THE ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE JET STREAK WILL NOT FAVOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS ARKANSAS.
ADDITIONALLY, A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE.
HOWEVER, DESPITE THIS, A FEW CELLS MAY MANAGE TO BREAK THIS CAPPING
INVERSION AND WOULD LIKELY BECOME SEVERE RATHER QUICKLY WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND A TORNADO
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
EXPECT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (IF THE CAP CAN BE
BROKEN) TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT:
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT
OF 5) FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5)
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.
NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AS WELL AS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION OF THE CONUS
WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET STREAK WHICH WILL PROMOTE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT. AT THE SFC, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI BY EARLY AFTERNOON OPENING UP A VERY UNSTABLE PARAMETER
SPACE ACROSS ARKANSAS. THE PRESENCE OF AMPLE MUCAPE BETWEEN 2,000
AND 3,000+ J/KG AND PLENTIFUL SRH VALUES OF 200 TO 250 M^2/S^2 WILL
CREATE A POWDER KEG OF POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
ARKANSAS. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE TO SIGNIFICANTLY LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE ENHANCED RISK ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS WILL CONTAIN AN ENVIRONMENT TO POSSIBLY
EXPERIENCE THE HIGHER ECHELON OF THESE THREATS INCLUDING BASEBALL
SIZED HAIL OR LARGER, 70 TO 80+ MPH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND A
FEW TORNADOES WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE LONG-TRACK AND
VIOLENT. LATEST GUIDANCE PORTRAYS SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES AND THE COLD FRONT
MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE, MORE
SUPERCELLS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME A LINE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. FINALLY,
CONGEALING INTO A LINEAR STORM MODE WHICH WILL PROMOTE A PRIMARY
DAMAGING WIND THREAT LATER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT THAT WILL PARALLEL
THE I-30/I-57 CORRIDOR INITIALLY ACROSS ARKANSAS AND PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
THE LONG TERM PD WL CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY ACTIVE WEATHER,
INCLUDING SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THE PD WL
START W/ ARGUABLY THE CALMEST DAYS OF THE PD THIS WEEKEND.
SAT, A TRAILING CDFRNT FM AN OCCLUDING GREAT LAKES SFC LOW WL BE
MOVING SWRD INTO NRN TO CNTRL AR, EVENTUALLY STALLING AND RESIDING
AS A STATIONARY FRNT THRU THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INVOF THIS FRNT, W/ INCRSG COVG AND
MAGNITUDE OF POPS SAT NIGHT THRU SUN. SOME LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY THE PRECIP ACTIVITY (GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS
IN PLACE), THOUGH THE EXACT FOOTPRINT OF WHERE GREATER RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR WL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRNT.
TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WL STAY ELEVATED IN THE UPPER 80S,
ACCOMPANIED BY EXTREMELY MUGGY CONDNS W/ SFC TD'S IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S, AND LOW 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.
ATTENTION WL THEN TURN TO THE MON-TUES TIMEFRAME, WHERE ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS INCRSG LOCALLY. BY MON, DEEP AND
AMPLIFIED H500 TROUGHING WL BE IN PLACE ACRS THE WRN TO CNTRL US,
WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING A FEW
EMBEDDED JET STREAKS EJECTING THRU THE MEAN FLOW. SUN NIGHT THRU MON
LOOKS TO BRING ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO AT LEAST THE N/WRN HALF OF
THE STATE AS A "RELATIVELY" WEAKER JET STREAK EJECTS THRU THE BASAL
REGION OF THE TROUGH, PROMOTING SCATTERED COVG OF THUNDERSTORMS
WHERE OVERLAP OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WL BE PLENTIFUL. FOR
NOW, THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO FALL THRU THE OVERNIGHT PD, W/ LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
TUES IS BEGINNING TO ADVERTISE A MORE CONCERNING OUTCOME AND
FEATURES, INCLUDING A FAST TRANSLATING JET STREAK INTO THE REGION
B/W MON EVNG TO TUES EVNG, A FEATURE SHOWN TO BE A STRONG
DISCRIMINATOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS. LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOLNS
REMAIN SET ON A VERY FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF SEVERE INGREDIENTS AND
GENERAL TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION W/IN AN EXTREMELY MOISTURE-
RICH WARM SECTOR TUES AFTN TO EVNG. IF TRENDS CONT TO HOLD OR EVEN
IMPROVE W/ REGARD TO LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES, AN INCRSG THREAT FOR
TORNADOES IS LKLY. GIVEN CURRENT THINKING, ALL SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON TUES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE STATE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM
THURSDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPO
GROUPS WHICH HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED TO SIGNIFY THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DROP VSBY TO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS ALL
SITES FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT AT ALL SITES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST ACROSS ALL SITES IN EXCESS
OF 20+ KNOTS FROM THURSDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 88 70 87 65 / 20 60 50 50
CAMDEN AR 91 73 90 69 / 0 10 10 50
HARRISON AR 86 63 86 59 / 20 10 60 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 89 71 90 66 / 10 40 30 50
LITTLE ROCK AR 89 73 89 68 / 10 50 30 60
MONTICELLO AR 92 74 90 71 / 0 10 10 60
MOUNT IDA AR 89 71 90 66 / 10 30 30 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 88 64 86 59 / 20 30 60 30
NEWPORT AR 88 71 88 66 / 10 60 50 60
PINE BLUFF AR 91 73 90 69 / 10 30 20 70
RUSSELLVILLE AR 89 68 89 63 / 20 40 40 40
SEARCY AR 88 70 88 66 / 10 60 40 60
STUTTGART AR 89 74 90 69 / 10 40 20 70
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...74
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