198
FXUS64 KLZK 152225
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
525 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAIN, LARGE HAIL, AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BRINGING THAT CHANCE
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. ALL OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO KICK OFF AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS OF RIGHT NOW, TUESDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES AFTER FRIDAY,
HOWEVER, POP-UP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
LASTING INTO MONDAY AS WELL.
IN ADDITION TO SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL MAKE FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES
FEEL SLIGHTLY WARMER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S TO MID 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S TO MID
70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE TSRA RETURNS TO TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
UNITL THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 69 88 64 89 / 70 50 40 10
CAMDEN AR 73 90 68 91 / 20 10 50 20
HARRISON AR 61 85 59 84 / 20 50 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 71 89 65 91 / 40 10 40 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 73 89 68 90 / 50 20 60 10
MONTICELLO AR 75 92 72 93 / 10 10 60 20
MOUNT IDA AR 71 88 64 91 / 30 20 30 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 62 87 58 85 / 40 60 10 10
NEWPORT AR 71 88 65 89 / 70 40 50 10
PINE BLUFF AR 74 90 69 91 / 30 10 70 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 69 89 63 90 / 50 30 30 10
SEARCY AR 70 88 64 89 / 60 30 50 10
STUTTGART AR 75 89 69 89 / 40 20 70 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73
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