649
FXUS64 KLZK 161726
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1226 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
A WEAK FRONT DROPPED SE INTO NWRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE ON
THU...TRIGGERING SOME STRONG/BRIEFLY SVR CONVECTION ALONG/SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS NWRN AR EARLY THIS FRI
MORNING...MOSTLY EVIDENT IN THE DEWPT GRADIENT ACROSS NWRN SECTIONS.
NEW CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NE IN THE SW FLOW
ALOFT OVER THIS FRONT. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY TO BECOME STRONG TO SVR THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES
NE...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. SOME DAMAGING WINDS COULD
ALSO BE SEEN...BUT WILL HAVE TO BREAK THROUGH THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...WITH SFC BASED INSTABILITY LIMITED/ELEVATED CIN. THIS
WILL ALSO KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT LOW...BUT STILL POSSIBLE.
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING AS
THE MORNING CONVECTION LIFTS NE...AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
AR. A DRYLINE THE WEST WILL THEN MOVE EAST TOWARDS AR BY MID
AFTERNOON...WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST...NORTH OF
AR...AROUND THE SOUTH EDGE OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. NEW CONVECTION LOOKS TO FIRE ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS
DRYLINE...THEN MOVE MAINLY EAST. INITIALLY...CONVECTION LOOKS TO
INITIATE ALONG/NORTH OF THE MO/AR STATE LINE LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HRS...LIFTING NE AWAY FROM AR. FURTHER
SOUTH...INITIATION WILL COME LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
THE CAPPING INVERSION HOLDS A BIT LONGER BEFORE THE DRYLINE
FORCING/UPPER ENERGY SHOULD OVERCOME THIS INVERSION.
ONCE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. THIS IS DUE TO
VERY IMPRESSIVE CAPE OF 3-4K J/KG OR HIGHER...WITH THICK CAPE
PROFILES AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE. FORECAST
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST UP TO BASEBALL SIZE...OR MAYBE SOME
POTENTIAL OF EVEN LARGER HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT GIVEN THIS SAME INSTABILITY/DRY AIR COMBINATION.
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT LOW LEVEL SRH WILL BE A BIT
MORE LIMITED (100-200 M2/S2 0-3 SRH). EVEN SO...GIVEN POTENTIAL
STEEP LAPSE RATES FORECAST IN THE LOW LEVELS...THIS COULD CERTAINLY
OVERCOME ANY RELATIVE LOW SRH...ALONG WITH THE VERY IMPRESSIVE CAPE.
THE TORNADO THREAT BECOMES HIGHER ACROSS NERN SECTIONS AND POINTS
FURTHER NE AS THE LOW LEVEL SRH INCREASES.
BY LATE FRI NIGHT...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOVE EAST/SE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE CONVECTION EXITS THE STATE TO THE
SE EARLY SAT MORNING. THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT BACK WEST...BUT A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE BY
SUNRISE SAT MORNING. MORE CONVECTION LOOKS TO DEVELOP TO THE SW OF
AR EARLY SAT AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NE INTO SWRN AR BY LATE
SAT AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEEING SVR WX WILL BE A BIT
LOWER WITH THIS CONVECTION ON SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE THE CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES
FROM THE SW. WHILE THE EVENTUAL STORM MODE LOOKS TO BE A CLUSTER OR
MCS BY THE TIME IT GETS TO AR...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WHILE THE OVERALL FORECAST INSTABILITY
WILL BE A BIT LOWER...THE NATURE OF THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL
SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL ONCE AGAIN...POTENTIALLY UP TO BASEBALL SIZE
ON SAT. MOST OF THE SVR THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF THE
STATE...OR MAINLY SOUTH OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION CONTINUING. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX WILL BE A BIT MORE LIMITED DURING THIS
PERIOD GIVEN A BIT OF RIDGING OVER THE STATE. HOWEVER...FORECAST
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN PLENTIFUL GIVEN WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS.
AS A RESULT...STILL THINK SOME STRONG TO BRIEFLY SVR CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL WILL COME ON TUE AS A
POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION...AND A COLD
FRONT SURGES SE THROUGH THE STATE. STRONG/SVR TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM ON TUE/TUE NIGHT AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...EXACT
DETAILS REGARDING TIMING AND OVERALL SPECIFIC THREATS ARE UNCERTAIN
THIS FAR OUT IN TIME.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE FORECAST WILL BECOME COOLER AND DRIER...AND
MORE IMPORTANTLY...LESS ACTIVE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
GREATEST COVERAGE OF TSRA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
BETWEEN 23Z AND 04Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER
06Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 86 64 89 65 / 50 30 10 60
CAMDEN AR 91 67 90 68 / 20 70 30 50
HARRISON AR 84 58 84 61 / 50 0 0 60
HOT SPRINGS AR 88 64 90 68 / 30 40 20 50
LITTLE ROCK AR 87 67 91 69 / 40 60 10 50
MONTICELLO AR 91 71 92 71 / 10 70 10 40
MOUNT IDA AR 88 63 90 67 / 30 20 30 50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 85 58 84 61 / 50 0 0 60
NEWPORT AR 87 64 89 68 / 50 50 0 60
PINE BLUFF AR 90 67 91 70 / 30 70 10 50
RUSSELLVILLE AR 86 62 90 67 / 50 20 10 50
SEARCY AR 87 64 90 68 / 50 50 10 60
STUTTGART AR 89 69 90 71 / 30 70 10 50
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...55
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