467
FXUS64 KLZK 162021
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
321 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
LATEST DATA FROM KLZK RADAR INDICATE THAT THE ISOLATED, YET VERY
WELL ORGANIZED STORMS THAT AFFECTED NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAVE DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXIST AREA WIDE, WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF >=
3500 J/KG NOTED. MODERATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR, ALONG WITH THE
PRONOUNCED INSTABILITY, ARE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WELL DEFINED
SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION.
18Z KLZK UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATES A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
AROUND 850 MB. THIS FEATURE HAS STRENGTHENED SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE
12Z.
RECENT CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FORCING ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE RESULTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD THEN
SPREAD EASTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW INDICATES THAT THE
OVERALL TORNADIC POTENTIAL MAY BE LOW WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
ON SATURDAY, MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE
IN THE VICINITY TO PROMOTE STRONG CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL LATE TUESDAY, WHEN A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID SOUTH. DRY AND RELATIVELY
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
GREATEST COVERAGE OF TSRA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
BETWEEN 23Z AND 04Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER
06Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 64 89 65 84 / 30 10 60 60
CAMDEN AR 67 90 68 89 / 70 30 50 20
HARRISON AR 58 84 61 81 / 0 0 60 60
HOT SPRINGS AR 64 90 68 87 / 40 20 50 40
LITTLE ROCK AR 67 91 69 87 / 60 10 50 50
MONTICELLO AR 71 92 71 90 / 70 10 40 30
MOUNT IDA AR 63 90 67 86 / 20 30 50 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 58 84 61 81 / 0 0 60 70
NEWPORT AR 64 89 68 85 / 50 0 60 60
PINE BLUFF AR 67 91 70 89 / 70 10 50 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 62 90 67 85 / 20 10 50 50
SEARCY AR 64 90 68 85 / 50 10 60 50
STUTTGART AR 69 90 71 86 / 70 10 50 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55
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