753
FXUS64 KLZK 170526 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1226 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
LATEST DATA FROM KLZK RADAR INDICATE THAT THE ISOLATED, YET VERY
WELL ORGANIZED STORMS THAT AFFECTED NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAVE DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXIST AREA WIDE, WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF >=
3500 J/KG NOTED. MODERATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR, ALONG WITH THE
PRONOUNCED INSTABILITY, ARE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WELL DEFINED
SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION.
18Z KLZK UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATES A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
AROUND 850 MB. THIS FEATURE HAS STRENGTHENED SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE
12Z.
RECENT CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FORCING ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE RESULTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD THEN
SPREAD EASTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW INDICATES THAT THE
OVERALL TORNADIC POTENTIAL MAY BE LOW WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
ON SATURDAY, MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE
IN THE VICINITY TO PROMOTE STRONG CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL LATE TUESDAY, WHEN A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID SOUTH. DRY AND RELATIVELY
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
RA/TS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF
THE STATE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK AT SOME
TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS TO VFR. SOME ADDITIONAL RA/TS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD IMPACT A FEW TERMINALS GENERALLY
AFTER 18/00Z. SFC WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 86 66 81 70 / 0 60 60 60
CAMDEN AR 90 68 87 70 / 20 40 30 20
HARRISON AR 83 61 78 67 / 10 60 70 70
HOT SPRINGS AR 90 67 85 69 / 10 40 40 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 90 69 86 71 / 10 50 50 40
MONTICELLO AR 90 71 88 73 / 20 40 40 20
MOUNT IDA AR 90 67 84 69 / 20 40 40 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 84 62 78 67 / 0 60 70 70
NEWPORT AR 87 68 83 71 / 0 60 60 60
PINE BLUFF AR 90 70 88 71 / 10 40 40 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 89 66 84 69 / 10 60 60 50
SEARCY AR 88 67 83 70 / 10 60 60 50
STUTTGART AR 90 71 86 73 / 10 50 50 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...67
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