204
FXUS64 KLZK 170757
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
257 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST EARLY THIS SAT
MORNING...WITH SOME LINGERING MARGINALLY SVR TSRA NOTED ACROSS SRN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY SE
THE REST OF THIS EARLY SAT MORNING AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST.
SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN PRECIP ACTIVITY FROM AROUND SUNRISE INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HRS. HOWEVER...A NEW WAVE OF CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP W/SW OF AR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HRS...EVENTUALLY
LIFTING NE INTO WRN/SWRN AR BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL THEN LIFT NE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HRS BEFORE
EXITING THE AREA BY THE EARLY MORNING HRS ON SUN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SVR...WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHR. AS A RESULT...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION CONTINUING AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM AR BY SUN NIGHT. A BREAK IN THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE SEEN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON
MON...BUT A NEW COLD FRONT AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TO THE NW WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE MON. THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX WILL BE A BIT MORE
LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN A BIT OF RIDGING OVER THE STATE.
HOWEVER...FORECAST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN PLENTIFUL GIVEN
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT...STILL THINK SOME STRONG TO
BRIEFLY SVR CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL WILL COME LATE MON
THROUGH TUE AS A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...AND A COLD FRONT SURGES SE THROUGH THE STATE. STRONG/SVR
TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON TUE/TUE NIGHT AS A RESULT.
HOWEVER...EXACT DETAILS REGARDING TIMING AND OVERALL SPECIFIC
THREATS ARE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT IN TIME.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE FORECAST WILL BECOME COOLER AND DRIER BY MID
WEEK. A LESS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL THEN BE SEEN AS A RESULT BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE/LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
RA/TS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF
THE STATE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK AT SOME
TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS TO VFR. SOME ADDITIONAL RA/TS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD IMPACT A FEW TERMINALS GENERALLY
AFTER 18/00Z. SFC WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 86 66 82 70 / 0 60 60 60
CAMDEN AR 90 68 88 70 / 20 50 30 20
HARRISON AR 83 61 79 67 / 10 60 70 70
HOT SPRINGS AR 90 67 86 69 / 10 40 40 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 90 69 87 71 / 10 60 50 40
MONTICELLO AR 90 71 89 73 / 10 40 40 20
MOUNT IDA AR 90 67 85 69 / 20 40 40 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 84 62 79 67 / 0 60 70 70
NEWPORT AR 87 68 84 71 / 0 60 60 60
PINE BLUFF AR 90 70 89 71 / 10 50 40 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 89 66 85 69 / 10 60 60 50
SEARCY AR 88 67 84 70 / 0 60 60 50
STUTTGART AR 90 71 87 73 / 10 50 50 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...67
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page