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FXUS64 KLZK 172318  
AFDLZK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  
618 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025  
 
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SEVERAL DIFFERENT AIR MASSES  
CURRENTLY EXIST ACROSS THE ARKANSAS. QUITE DRY CONDITIONS WITH  
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXISTS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM  
FAYETTEVILLE, TO SALEM. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXISTS ALONG  
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DE QUEEN TO CROSSETT. A HYBRID OF  
CONDITIONS IS IN PLACE BETWEEN THE TWO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED  
BOUNDARIES.  
 
THE SOUTHERN MOIST AIR MASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH VERY UNSTABLE  
CONDITIONS, WITH >= 4000 J/KG MLCAPE VALUES INDICATED. THESE  
CONDITIONS EXTEND WESTWARD TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.  
 
STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BIG  
BEND AREA OF TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY WILL BE A  
FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED (<20 % COVERAGE) LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  
INCREASED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA  
AND NORTH TEXAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES. THIS ACTIVITY  
IS THEN EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE, WITH (LINEAR) MCS DEVELOPMENT  
LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM WOULD THEN MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE  
FORECAST AREA. NEAR TERM FORECASTS ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.  
FORECASTED VALUES IN THE NEAR TERM PARAMETER SPACE FAVOR INCREASED  
CHANCES FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST  
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IMPACT CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE MONDAY  
AND TUESDAY, AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES THE MID SOUTH WHILE  
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. LATER FORECASTS WILL BETTER REFINE  
MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025  
 
FORECASTS WILL REFLECT EXPECTED UPSCALE GROWTH OF THE ACTIVITY  
FORMING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. WIDELY SCATTERED (<= 20%  
COVERAGE) AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG ARE EXPECTED  
BETWEEN 09Z-14Z.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
BATESVILLE AR 65 83 69 86 / 50 60 60 30  
CAMDEN AR 68 87 70 89 / 50 30 20 10  
HARRISON AR 60 80 66 82 / 50 70 60 60  
HOT SPRINGS AR 66 87 68 87 / 40 40 30 30  
LITTLE ROCK AR 69 87 71 87 / 50 60 40 20  
MONTICELLO AR 70 89 71 90 / 50 30 20 10  
MOUNT IDA AR 65 86 68 86 / 40 40 30 50  
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 61 80 66 82 / 60 60 70 50  
NEWPORT AR 67 84 71 86 / 50 60 60 20  
PINE BLUFF AR 68 89 70 88 / 40 40 40 10  
RUSSELLVILLE AR 66 85 69 86 / 50 60 50 40  
SEARCY AR 67 85 69 86 / 50 60 50 20  
STUTTGART AR 70 87 72 88 / 50 60 40 10  
 
 
   
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...55  
LONG TERM....55  
AVIATION...55  
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