825
FXUS64 KLZK 180539
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SEVERAL DIFFERENT AIR MASSES
CURRENTLY EXIST ACROSS THE ARKANSAS. QUITE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXISTS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
FAYETTEVILLE, TO SALEM. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXISTS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DE QUEEN TO CROSSETT. A HYBRID OF
CONDITIONS IS IN PLACE BETWEEN THE TWO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
BOUNDARIES.
THE SOUTHERN MOIST AIR MASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS, WITH >= 4000 J/KG MLCAPE VALUES INDICATED. THESE
CONDITIONS EXTEND WESTWARD TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BIG
BEND AREA OF TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED (<20 % COVERAGE) LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES. THIS ACTIVITY
IS THEN EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE, WITH (LINEAR) MCS DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM WOULD THEN MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA. NEAR TERM FORECASTS ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.
FORECASTED VALUES IN THE NEAR TERM PARAMETER SPACE FAVOR INCREASED
CHANCES FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST VALUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IMPACT CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES THE MID SOUTH WHILE
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. LATER FORECASTS WILL BETTER REFINE
MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
CLUSTER OF VERY STRONG STORMS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO KPBF OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE
TERMINALS BUT VCTS/SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR
ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KHRO AND KBPK. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND AVERAGE UNDER 15 KTS EXCEPT IN AND
NEAR CONVECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 69 84 68 84 / 60 30 80 60
CAMDEN AR 69 88 70 89 / 40 10 40 40
HARRISON AR 66 80 64 79 / 70 60 90 40
HOT SPRINGS AR 69 85 68 86 / 50 30 70 40
LITTLE ROCK AR 70 85 70 85 / 50 20 70 50
MONTICELLO AR 72 89 73 89 / 40 10 30 50
MOUNT IDA AR 69 85 68 85 / 40 50 80 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 66 81 65 81 / 70 50 90 50
NEWPORT AR 71 85 70 85 / 50 20 70 60
PINE BLUFF AR 70 88 71 87 / 50 10 50 50
RUSSELLVILLE AR 69 84 68 84 / 60 50 80 40
SEARCY AR 69 85 69 84 / 50 20 70 50
STUTTGART AR 72 87 72 86 / 50 10 50 50
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55
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