182
FXUS64 KLZK 180720
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
220 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS EXITED TO THE SE EARLY THIS SUN
MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE CWA CALM AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOW FIRING IN CENTRAL TO NE OK/NW
AR...AND IS MOVING E/SE. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CONTINUE MOVING E/SE
ALONG A WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING. THIS WOULD PUT
THIS CONVECTION BASICALLY MOVING EAST ALONG THE I-40 AND AR RIVER
VALLEY CORRIDOR THROUGH JUST AFTER SUNRISE. SOME DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT
PUSHES EAST. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL SOME RAIN COOLED AIR OVER
CENTRAL AR MAY KEEP THIS ACTIVITY FROM MAKING IT THIS FAR EAST...BUT
WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS THIS MORNING.
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH THIS SUN MORNING...WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE. WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE AROUND THE TOP OF THE THIS WEAK UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL KEEP SOME CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. WHILE WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED
SVR CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW TSRA WILL STILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG/SVR...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON...THE WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT
EAST...AND SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT. A NEW UPPER
SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST WILL APPROACH AR...WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE. WHILE A BREAK IN
PRECIP WILL BE SEEN DURING THE FIRST PART OF MON...THESE FEATURES
WILL BRING INCREASED POPS FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MON
NIGHT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION
COULD BE SEEN AS EARLY AS LATE MON AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE FORECAST
INSTABILITY/SHR WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...STRONG TO SVR TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SOME TORNADOES COULD
ALSO BE SEEN...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL NOTE THAT
THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF CERTAIN FEATURES WITH THIS EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...AND FURTHER
REFINEMENTS IN THE OVERALL FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.
BY LATE TUE INTO WED...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. DEWPTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S AND
50S...AND HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. SOME AREAS MAY EVEN SEE HIGHS
REMAIN IN THE 60S DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THIS WEEK.
LOWS BY THU MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE 50S FOR MANY AREAS...AND
MAYBE IN TO THE 40S AND 50S BY FRI MORNING. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
POPS FAIRLY LOW INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...THOUGH A WARM FRONT MAY
ATTEMPT TO LIFT BACK NORTH LATE IN THE FORECAST...WITH SOME LOWER
END POPS RETURNING AS A RESULT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
CLUSTER OF VERY STRONG STORMS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO KPBF OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE
TERMINALS BUT VCTS/SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR
ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KHRO AND KBPK. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND AVERAGE UNDER 15 KTS EXCEPT IN AND
NEAR CONVECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 81 69 84 68 / 50 60 30 80
CAMDEN AR 86 69 88 70 / 40 40 10 40
HARRISON AR 78 66 80 64 / 60 70 60 90
HOT SPRINGS AR 83 69 85 68 / 50 50 30 70
LITTLE ROCK AR 83 70 85 70 / 60 50 20 70
MONTICELLO AR 87 72 89 73 / 40 40 10 30
MOUNT IDA AR 82 69 85 68 / 40 40 50 80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 79 66 81 65 / 50 70 50 90
NEWPORT AR 82 71 85 70 / 50 50 20 70
PINE BLUFF AR 85 70 88 71 / 50 50 10 50
RUSSELLVILLE AR 82 69 84 68 / 60 60 50 80
SEARCY AR 82 69 85 69 / 50 50 20 70
STUTTGART AR 84 72 87 72 / 60 50 10 50
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...56
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