172
FXUS64 KLZK 182102
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
402 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SE HALF OF AR
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW AND N-CNTRL AR, A CONTINUATION OF CONVECTION
FROM THIS MORNING, AS WELL AS NEWER CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED
OVER PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL AR IN PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE BOUNDARY
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S,
IN RAIN COOLED AREAS, TO THE LOWER 80S WHERE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAS
BEEN SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE.
AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MAINLY THE NW HALF
OF THE STATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS NEAR A NWRD LIFTING WARM FRONT.
SYNOPTICALLY, SW FLOW WAS IN PLACE BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES AND SUBTLE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS DELTA REGION. THIS
PATTERN HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THROUGH BACKGROUND SWRLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE PERIODS
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CHARACTERIZED BY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER, THE RIDGE AND TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE
EWRD WITH NW FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL BRING US A BREAK FROM UNSETTLED WEATHER.
AN ADDITIONAL, POTENTIALLY MORE POTENT, ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD COLD FRONT AND PASSING UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR BETTER COVERAGE
OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND EVEN
TORNADOES. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK CURRENTLY LIES OVER THE
NWRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE. SAMPLE POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATES
SBCAPE BETWEEN 2500-3000 J/KG, MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG, EBWD 30-50
KTS, 0-1KM SRH 150-250 M2/S2 AND 0-3KM 200-400 M2/S2 ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH TRANSITIONING TO NEGATIVELY TILTED, THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT LIFT TO TRIGGER STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE IN
SEVERITY AS THE NIGHT GOES ON AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES WORKED
OVER AND OR NOCTURNAL COOLING HELPS TAME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
DWINDLE FROM NW TO SE THROUGH MID-DAY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND
70S.
LOW-END RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN AS WE APPROACH THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND HOWEVER THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO ARRIVE VIA NW FLOW,
SO THIS WILL NEED WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MCS'S. THROUGH
MID/LATE WEEK, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY WITH PREVAILING NRLY WINDS
EXPECTED. ON NRLY WINDS, DEW POINTS SHOULD DIP BACK INTO THE 40S
AND 50S, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S AND 80S AND LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE
ONE OF THE LAST GOOD, LONGER DURATION, COOL DOWNS BEFORE MUGGY
CONDITIONS COME ROARING BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE SUMMER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER VFR CONDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH ACTIVITY DWINDLING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MVFR LATE IN THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE S/SERLY AT AROUND 10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 69 84 68 85 / 60 30 80 50
CAMDEN AR 69 88 70 88 / 30 10 40 30
HARRISON AR 66 80 64 77 / 70 60 90 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 69 85 68 86 / 40 30 70 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 70 85 70 86 / 50 20 70 40
MONTICELLO AR 72 89 73 89 / 30 10 30 50
MOUNT IDA AR 69 85 68 85 / 40 50 80 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 66 81 65 80 / 70 50 90 40
NEWPORT AR 71 85 70 86 / 60 20 70 50
PINE BLUFF AR 70 88 71 89 / 50 10 50 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 69 84 68 83 / 50 50 80 20
SEARCY AR 69 85 69 86 / 50 20 70 40
STUTTGART AR 72 87 72 87 / 50 10 50 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70
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