122
FXUS64 KLZK 190830
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
330 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS
THE CWA IS IN A BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT OVER THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE STATE
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. PLENTY OF
GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN INTO THE REGION AS SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAIL.
UPPER PATTERN THIS MORNING REMAINS AMPLIFIED WITH DEEP TROUGHING
OVER THE ROCKIES/WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET START
TO THE DAY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS AROUND, RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP
UP CONSIDERABLY OVER THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT AND
HEADS TOWARDS THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS WELL.
A RATHER ROBUST SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF SAID TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION AND TAP ONTO INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WITH PWATS
FORECAST TO BE OVER 2 INCHES PRETTY MUCH STATEWIDE BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN IN A
RELATIVELY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME OVER NORTHERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. THIS RAIN WILL FALL ON GROUND THAT IS ALREADY SATURATED
IN MANY PLACES MAKING IT MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. AS SUCH, A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ARKANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY.
ON TO THE SEVERE SIDE OF THIS SET UP. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO THE
ADVANCING SHORT WAVE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE REACHING
THE WESTERN AR/EASTERN OK BORDER BY EARLY TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE OVERALL AIRMASS
BECOMING INCREASING UNSTABLE. ANY INSOLATION WILL ONLY ADD TO THE
INSTABILITY AND HASTEN THE WEAKENING OF WHATEVER CAP THERE IS.
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING TORNADOES AS THE APPROACHING TROUGH
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH TIME AND A SPEED MAX ROTATES
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
CAMS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING CONVECTION CONTINUING
ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT DECREASING IN INTENSITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH DEW POINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 50S WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH MID WEEK WHEN
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS IN SOME
COOLER AIR, FOR A FEW DAYS AT LEAST. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME
LOW END RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A FEW WEAK UPPER WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NIGHT BUT NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY RUN MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITION, ESPECIALLY
AROUND SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL, MAINLY SCATTERED LIGHT CONVECTION
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY BUT WILL BECOME MUCH MORE ORGANIZED
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHES.
KHRO AND KBPK WILL BE THE TAF SITES MOST IMPACTED. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND GUSTY AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 85 68 84 59 / 40 60 50 0
CAMDEN AR 89 72 88 59 / 20 60 20 0
HARRISON AR 80 63 77 55 / 80 80 20 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 87 68 87 58 / 50 70 20 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 86 71 87 61 / 30 70 30 0
MONTICELLO AR 90 74 89 63 / 10 40 40 0
MOUNT IDA AR 86 68 85 57 / 70 80 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 83 64 80 55 / 70 90 30 0
NEWPORT AR 87 70 86 60 / 30 80 50 0
PINE BLUFF AR 89 72 89 61 / 20 50 30 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 85 67 83 56 / 70 90 20 0
SEARCY AR 86 69 85 59 / 30 70 30 0
STUTTGART AR 88 73 87 62 / 20 60 30 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR ARZ004>008-014>017-024-031-103-112-113-121>123-203-212-213-
221>223-313.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...56
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