635
FXUS64 KLZK 191723 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1223 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS
THE CWA IS IN A BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT OVER THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE STATE
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. PLENTY OF
GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN INTO THE REGION AS SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAIL.
UPPER PATTERN THIS MORNING REMAINS AMPLIFIED WITH DEEP TROUGHING
OVER THE ROCKIES/WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET START
TO THE DAY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS AROUND, RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP
UP CONSIDERABLY OVER THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT AND
HEADS TOWARDS THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS WELL.
A RATHER ROBUST SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF SAID TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION AND TAP ONTO INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WITH PWATS
FORECAST TO BE OVER 2 INCHES PRETTY MUCH STATEWIDE BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN IN A
RELATIVELY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME OVER NORTHERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. THIS RAIN WILL FALL ON GROUND THAT IS ALREADY SATURATED
IN MANY PLACES MAKING IT MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. AS SUCH, A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ARKANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY.
ON TO THE SEVERE SIDE OF THIS SET UP. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO THE
ADVANCING SHORT WAVE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE REACHING
THE WESTERN AR/EASTERN OK BORDER BY EARLY TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE OVERALL AIRMASS
BECOMING INCREASING UNSTABLE. ANY INSOLATION WILL ONLY ADD TO THE
INSTABILITY AND HASTEN THE WEAKENING OF WHATEVER CAP THERE IS.
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING TORNADOES AS THE APPROACHING TROUGH
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH TIME AND A SPEED MAX ROTATES
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
CAMS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING CONVECTION CONTINUING
ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT DECREASING IN INTENSITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH DEW POINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 50S WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH MID WEEK WHEN
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS IN SOME
COOLER AIR, FOR A FEW DAYS AT LEAST. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME
LOW END RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A FEW WEAK UPPER WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE FA THIS AFTN W/
OVERSPREADING HIGHER CIRRUS FM OK CONVECTION. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE INTO THIS EVNG AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
THE STATE FM THE WEST, W/ IFR CIGS AND VARIABLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY FOR CNTRL TO NRN
TERMINALS. MAIN TIMING OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED AS EARLY THIS AFTN
NEAR 21Z FOR NRN TERMINALS, W/ CNTRL TERMINALS MORE LKLY TO SEE
STORMS NEAR OR AFTER 00-03Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST EXCEPT IN AND NEAR CONVECTION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE POSSIBLE INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST EXCEPT IN AND NEAR CONVECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 68 84 59 82 / 60 50 0 0
CAMDEN AR 72 88 59 88 / 60 20 0 0
HARRISON AR 63 77 55 77 / 80 20 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 68 87 58 87 / 70 20 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 71 87 61 85 / 70 30 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 74 89 63 88 / 40 40 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 68 85 57 86 / 80 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 64 80 55 77 / 90 30 0 0
NEWPORT AR 70 86 60 82 / 80 50 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 72 89 61 87 / 50 30 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 67 83 56 84 / 90 20 0 0
SEARCY AR 69 85 59 83 / 70 30 0 0
STUTTGART AR 73 87 62 85 / 60 30 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ004>008-014>017-024-
031-039-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-
221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...72
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