540
FXUS64 KLZK 200454
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1154 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE WE SEE A TRANSITION TO A HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT OVERNIGHT. STORMS THAT POP UP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE
THIS EVENING WILL POSE A CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL, TORNADOES, AND
DAMAGING WINDS. EVENTUALLY, A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
TRANSITION TO A HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT.
THE GREATEST CONCERNS FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE FROM
NORTHWESTERN, NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. WITH
THAT SAID, ARKANSANS ACROSS THE STATE SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER AWARE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE
MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS.
CALMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
IN ADDITION TO SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS,
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
A COMPLEX OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
ARKANSAS FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL DEGRADE CIGS AND VSBY TO AS LOW
AS IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM CELLS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL GUST ACROSS MOST TERMINALS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY, EXPECT HIGHER WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE IN
THUNDERSTORMS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS ALL SITES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GRADUAL CLEARING AND A RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL
BE NOTED ACROSS ALL SITES LATE TUESDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 81 68 85 59 / 50 90 40 0
CAMDEN AR 87 71 88 58 / 20 50 20 0
HARRISON AR 76 63 78 55 / 80 100 20 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 81 66 87 57 / 50 80 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 82 70 87 60 / 40 70 20 0
MONTICELLO AR 86 74 89 61 / 20 30 30 0
MOUNT IDA AR 81 66 86 56 / 70 80 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 79 64 81 55 / 70 100 30 0
NEWPORT AR 84 69 86 59 / 40 80 40 0
PINE BLUFF AR 86 72 89 60 / 20 50 20 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 81 66 83 56 / 80 90 10 0
SEARCY AR 82 68 86 58 / 40 80 30 0
STUTTGART AR 85 73 87 61 / 20 60 30 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ004>008-014>017-024-
031-039-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-
221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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