413
FXUS64 KLZK 200709
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
209 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
CURRENTLY:
AS OF 2 AM CDT, MULTIPLE LINES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS. THE
STRONGEST OF WHICH IS A BOWING LINE THAT IS ENTERING ARKANSAS FROM
OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE ACROSS A REGION
THAT REMAINS CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AND WILL IMPACT A LARGE PORTION
OF THE STATE CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
INTERMITTENT SEVERE WEATHER OPPORTUNITIES INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN MUCH
OF THE PARAMETER SPACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
TODAY (TUESDAY):
AT H500, A CLOSED LOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE MID-WEST REGION OF
THE CONUS AND EJECT THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN PRESENT OVER THE MAJORITY OF
ARKANSAS. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY. IT IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT AS IT ENTERS INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME IN WHICH RE-DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO INITIATE AND PUSH EASTWARD INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS
AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS
EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS IMPLEMENTED AN ENHANCED
RISK (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE
EASTERN FLANK OF ARKANSAS FOR POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, AND A FEW TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH ANY RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS THAT DOES MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE
STATE.
WEDNESDAY:
AT H500, ZONAL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER ARKANSAS AND NO SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LVL FEATURES WILL BE DISTINGUISHED OVER THE REGION. AT THE
SFC, A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FROPA AND
PROVIDE US A DAY OF DRY AND OVERALL FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE NATURAL
STATE. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS LATER INTO
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE STATE
AS IT IS PROGGED TO BECOME A STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO THURSDAY.
EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE DAY REGARDING
STATEWIDE DRY AND FAIR WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FROPA.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD ONCE AGAIN AT BOTH THE UPPER
LVLS AND AT THE SFC. AT H500, AN ELONGATED RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
OVER THE STATE BY THE WEEKEND. FOR THIS PERIOD OF TIME,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL BE PRESENT
OVER THE STATE. AT THE SFC, THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS ARKANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND
BECOME A STATIONARY FRONT BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT OVER
THIS PERIOD OF TIME, UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES WITH RAIN AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE AT THE CURRENT TIME FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER TO MATERIALIZE BETWEEN THURSDAY AND MONDAY IS LOW AT
THIS TIME AND SIGNALS CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE THIS VIA PRIOR
FORECAST PACKAGES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
A COMPLEX OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
ARKANSAS FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL DEGRADE CIGS AND VSBY TO AS LOW
AS IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM CELLS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL GUST ACROSS MOST TERMINALS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY, EXPECT HIGHER WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE IN
THUNDERSTORMS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS ALL SITES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GRADUAL CLEARING AND A RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL
BE NOTED ACROSS ALL SITES LATE TUESDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 85 58 83 59 / 40 0 0 20
CAMDEN AR 88 57 88 60 / 20 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 79 54 80 55 / 20 0 0 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 87 57 87 60 / 20 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 86 60 86 62 / 30 0 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 88 61 89 63 / 40 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 86 57 87 59 / 20 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 82 54 79 55 / 30 0 0 20
NEWPORT AR 86 59 84 60 / 50 0 0 20
PINE BLUFF AR 88 59 87 62 / 30 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 84 56 86 60 / 20 0 0 10
SEARCY AR 86 57 84 59 / 30 0 0 10
STUTTGART AR 86 61 85 63 / 40 0 0 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARZ004>008-014>017-
024-031-039-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-
221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
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