996
FXUS64 KLZK 201730
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
CURRENTLY:
AS OF 2 AM CDT, MULTIPLE LINES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS. THE
STRONGEST OF WHICH IS A BOWING LINE THAT IS ENTERING ARKANSAS FROM
OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE ACROSS A REGION
THAT REMAINS CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AND WILL IMPACT A LARGE PORTION
OF THE STATE CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
INTERMITTENT SEVERE WEATHER OPPORTUNITIES INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN MUCH
OF THE PARAMETER SPACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
TODAY (TUESDAY):
AT H500, A CLOSED LOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE MID-WEST REGION OF
THE CONUS AND EJECT THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN PRESENT OVER THE MAJORITY OF
ARKANSAS. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY. IT IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT AS IT ENTERS INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME IN WHICH RE-DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO INITIATE AND PUSH EASTWARD INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS
AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS
EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS IMPLEMENTED AN ENHANCED
RISK (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE
EASTERN FLANK OF ARKANSAS FOR POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, AND A FEW TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH ANY RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS THAT DOES MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE
STATE.
WEDNESDAY:
AT H500, ZONAL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER ARKANSAS AND NO SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LVL FEATURES WILL BE DISTINGUISHED OVER THE REGION. AT THE
SFC, A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FROPA AND
PROVIDE US A DAY OF DRY AND OVERALL FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE NATURAL
STATE. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS LATER INTO
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE STATE
AS IT IS PROGGED TO BECOME A STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO THURSDAY.
EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE DAY REGARDING
STATEWIDE DRY AND FAIR WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FROPA.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD ONCE AGAIN AT BOTH THE UPPER
LVLS AND AT THE SFC. AT H500, AN ELONGATED RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
OVER THE STATE BY THE WEEKEND. FOR THIS PERIOD OF TIME,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL BE PRESENT
OVER THE STATE. AT THE SFC, THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS ARKANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND
BECOME A STATIONARY FRONT BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT OVER
THIS PERIOD OF TIME, UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES WITH RAIN AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE AT THE CURRENT TIME FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER TO MATERIALIZE BETWEEN THURSDAY AND MONDAY IS LOW AT
THIS TIME AND SIGNALS CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE THIS VIA PRIOR
FORECAST PACKAGES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WITH THAT SAID, TSRA/SHRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS LLQ/PBF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME SHRA/TSRA COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
LIT BUT CONFIDENCE OF STORM INITIATION IS NOT HIGH. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 58 83 59 77 / 0 0 20 10
CAMDEN AR 57 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 10
HARRISON AR 54 80 55 73 / 0 0 20 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 57 87 60 85 / 0 0 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 60 86 62 82 / 0 0 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 61 89 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 57 87 59 84 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 54 79 55 73 / 0 0 20 10
NEWPORT AR 59 84 60 78 / 0 0 20 0
PINE BLUFF AR 59 87 62 84 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 56 86 60 81 / 0 0 10 10
SEARCY AR 57 84 59 80 / 0 0 10 0
STUTTGART AR 61 85 63 81 / 0 0 10 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...74
AVIATION...73
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