767
FXUS64 KLZK 140542
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1242 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
BAND 1 AND 2 GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO CLEARLY REVEAL THE
CIRCULATION OF UPPER LOW, NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.
CONVECTION, GENERALLY WEAK, CONTINUES TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CIRCULATION. THE CHARACTER OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IS REFLECTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES. ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS WILL
BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THIS
PERIOD. A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP, AND SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW, PROMOTING ADDITIONAL, MAINLY WEAK
CONVECTION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD, UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF
COAST. OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE ACCORDINGLY.
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CNTRL THIRD
OF AR. ACROSS THE N AND POSSIBLY SW AR, SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
CLEAR OUT WITH FG DEVELOPING. EXPECTING LIFR/IFR WHERE FG DEVELOPS AND
MVFR AROUND CONVECTION, VFR ELSEWHERE. POPS SHOULD DECREASE NEAR
SUNRISE, WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN AR. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE, WENT WITH
PROB30'S TO ACCOUNT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WINDS SHOULD BE SW
AT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 86 69 87 71 / 20 10 40 20
CAMDEN AR 88 71 85 71 / 50 30 60 20
HARRISON AR 84 67 83 68 / 10 10 40 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 87 71 86 71 / 50 20 50 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 87 72 85 72 / 50 20 50 20
MONTICELLO AR 87 72 84 72 / 60 30 70 20
MOUNT IDA AR 86 70 84 71 / 50 20 50 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 84 68 85 68 / 10 10 40 30
NEWPORT AR 87 71 89 73 / 20 10 30 20
PINE BLUFF AR 87 72 85 72 / 50 20 60 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 87 71 87 72 / 40 20 50 20
SEARCY AR 87 71 87 71 / 40 10 40 20
STUTTGART AR 86 74 87 74 / 60 20 50 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...70
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