155
FXUS64 KLZK 150551
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1251 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF AN MCS OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS AHEAD OF AN MCS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON. A LOOK AT CURRENT HI-RES CAMS SHOWS THE INITIAL
MCS WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE LITTLE
ROCK METRO AREA IN THE 4-6 PM TIME FRAME. THIS LINES UP WITH
CURRENT THINKING AS A GLANCE OF IR SHOWS WARMING CLOUD TOPS WITHIN
THE MCS CURRENTLY AND THE ENVIRONMENT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
AND WESTERN ARKANSAS BEING TEMPERED NOW BY ONGOING CONVECTION OR
PREVIOUS CONVECTION FROM THIS MORNING. A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO
IS STILL POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING MCS BEFORE IT
DISSIPATES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ARKANSAS BY EARLY
EVENING.
BY TONIGHT, UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTH/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INITIATING
AN MCS OVER THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
FAR EAST AS WESTERN, NORTHERN, AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. HI-RES CAMS
AND OTHER SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME KEEPS THE MCS OUT OF
THE STATE AS IT MOVE SOUTH OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS ALONG THE
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH AT LEAST A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN US FLATTENS AND PUSHES WELL EAST
OF THE EASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO
THE EASTWARD ADVANCING TROUGH.
AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY, A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ARKANSAS AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST US INTO ARKANSAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A
LOOK AT CURRENT DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS BULK SHEAR OF 30-40
KTS AND CAPE VALUES IN THE ORDER OF 2000-2500J/KG, PARTICULARLY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST, CENTRAL, AND EASTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS AT THIS TIME WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE PARAMETERS. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED
THAT TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CAN
AND WILL CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.
AS WE HEAD FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL FURTHER EXPAND WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING BUT WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE
STATE WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 RANGE ARE LOOKING INCREASING
LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT AS LOW
STRATUS DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE STATE. FG COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN
THE ABSENCE OF LOW STRATUS DUE TO ABUNDANT GROUND LEVEL MOISTURE
IN COMBINATION WITH NEAR CALM WINDS. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED NEAR
DAYBREAK OVER NW AR, POSSIBLY AS A DECAYING MCS, WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION OVER SE AR. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MIDDAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AT MOST
TERMINALS. NEAR CONVECTION, MVFR/IFR CONDS COULD BE POSSIBLE.
WINDS SHOULD BE S/SW AT AROUND 10 KTS ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 83 70 83 71 / 80 60 50 10
CAMDEN AR 86 70 85 71 / 70 60 70 10
HARRISON AR 77 67 84 68 / 70 30 20 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 85 70 85 71 / 80 50 50 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 84 71 85 72 / 80 60 50 10
MONTICELLO AR 86 72 85 74 / 80 50 80 20
MOUNT IDA AR 84 70 85 72 / 80 40 40 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 80 68 84 68 / 70 40 30 10
NEWPORT AR 86 73 83 72 / 70 60 60 10
PINE BLUFF AR 85 71 83 72 / 80 60 70 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 83 70 86 71 / 80 50 30 10
SEARCY AR 84 70 84 71 / 70 60 50 10
STUTTGART AR 86 73 83 73 / 70 60 60 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...70
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