496
FXUS64 KLZK 151140
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS SUN
MORNING AS THE AFTERNOON/EVENING RAINFALL HAS DISSIPATED OR MOVED
OUT OF THE STATE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS PRECIP...SOME PATCHY FOG WAS
NOTED...WITH THE MORE DENSE FOG SEEN OVER WRN SECTIONS. TO THE NW OF
AR...A COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA HAS DEVELOPED OVER NERN OK...UNDER AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER SERN KS/NERN OK.
NEAR-TERM HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE AFOREMENTIONED COMPLEX OF
CONVECTION DROPPING GENERALLY SSE THROUGH THIS SUN MORNING. THIS
SHOULD BE THE CASE AS THIS WILL TRACK GENERALLY ALONG THE THETA-
E/INSTABILITY GRADIENT DEPICTED IN RECENT MESOSCALE ANALYSIS. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE WHERE THE STRONGER CONVECTION PROGRESSES OVER TIME.
HOWEVER...THE EWD PROGRESSING PORTION OF THIS CONVECTION LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO NWRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...POTENTIALLY INTO THE NWRN
SECTIONS OF THE LZK CWA. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE LESS INTENSE AS
IT MOVES INTO LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. EVEN SO...WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS EVOLUTION AS IT MOVES INTO THE NWRN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA.
BY AFTER SUNRISE...MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
IN AR...OR HAVE MOVED SW OF AR. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO DROP SE INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS MAY BE
THE FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HRS AS THESE BOUNDARIES TRIGGER NEW CONVECTION WITH THE INCREASING
INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE LESS
ORGANIZED THAN THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...BUT WILL BE
UNDER OR JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL GIVE SOME
ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM ENERGY ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.
WHILE THE SVR WX THREAT LOOKS LIMITED...SOME OF THESE TSRA MAY HAVE
THE ABILITY TO BECOME STRONG...BRIEFLY SVR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH
THE STRONGEST TSRA...WITH SOME MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IF THIS
CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE THE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN
THAT FELL IN RECENT DAYS.
BY TONIGHT INTO MON...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT ESE
OVER AR...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO
MIDDAY MON NEAR THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO MON AFTERNOON/EVENING UNTIL THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AXIS
FINALLY MOVES EAST OF AR. AS WITH THE CONVECTION THIS SUN...SIMILAR
THREATS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO MON AS WELL...MAINLY DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. QUIETER CONDITIONS
MAY FINALLY BE SEEN INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...BUT HOTTER CONDITIONS WILL REPLACE THE RELATIVELY
COOLER...BUT WETTER CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE MUCH CALMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS. THROUGH SATURDAY, THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS
WILL BE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. OTHERWISE
THE PATTERN IS SHIFTING TO A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN ONE WOULD
EXPECT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ON TUESDAY A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH INVOF TN/OH VALLEYS. THIS PATTERN
WILL PROMOTE WEAK NW FLOW ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF WEDNESDAY WITH NO NOTABLE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TO
PROMOTE CONVECTION. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AND RETROGRADE WITH FLOW LOCALLY BECOMING WRLY BEFORE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PASSING TROUGH IS
ANTICIPATED TO SPARK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. ORGANIZED WEATHER WEATHER LOOKS
UNLIKELY.
BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OUT W WILL
AMPLIFY AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. THIS RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE STATE ON SATURDAY. LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE
ATTEMPTS. S AND SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WHICH WILL SERVE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED AND DEW
POINTS TROPICAL LIKE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO MID 90S
WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD CREEP UPWARDS EACH
DAY WITH APPARENT T'S CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.
VERY WET ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS GIVES GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY BY THE WEEKEND IN CONJUNCTION
WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, HEAT INDEX
VALUES COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED 105 DEGREES IN SEVERAL PLACES. THE
FIRST ROUND OF HEAT HEADLINES MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED BY THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
FG AND LOW CIGS ARE BRINGING A MIX OF LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDS TO TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED NEAR DAYBREAK OVER
CNTRL AND NW AR. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MIDDAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH PRECIP WINDING DOWN. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP AT MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. NEAR
CONVECTION, MVFR/IFR CONDS COULD BE POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD BE
S/SW AT AROUND 10 KTS ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 84 70 83 71 / 80 60 50 10
CAMDEN AR 87 70 85 71 / 70 60 60 10
HARRISON AR 78 67 84 68 / 80 40 30 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 86 70 85 71 / 70 50 40 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 85 71 85 72 / 80 60 50 10
MONTICELLO AR 87 72 85 74 / 80 60 70 20
MOUNT IDA AR 85 70 85 72 / 70 40 40 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 81 68 84 68 / 80 50 40 10
NEWPORT AR 87 73 83 72 / 80 60 60 10
PINE BLUFF AR 86 71 83 72 / 80 60 60 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 84 70 86 71 / 80 50 30 10
SEARCY AR 85 70 84 71 / 80 60 50 10
STUTTGART AR 87 73 83 73 / 70 60 60 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70
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