704
FXUS64 KLZK 160532
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1232 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
- A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WITH ONE OR TWO BRIEFLY SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
THROUGH MONDAY.
- A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- HEAT AND HUMID WITH DRY CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 POSSIBLE. HEAT HEADLINES
MAY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A PRONOUNCED MCV OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI NORTH OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED OVER
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH OUTFLOW SENT OUT FROM A
DECAYING MCS NOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS AIDING IN INITIALIZING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HI-RES CAMS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES THIS TREND WITH
SOME UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AFTER 23Z
SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2000J/KG OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 OVER SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS. AN ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWS AROUND 15KT OF
BULK SHEAR WITH HIGHER SHEAR VALUES CLOSER TO 20-30 KNOTS NEAR
THE MCS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND STORMS MAY BRIEFLY REACH
SEVERE LIMITS WITH SOME BRIEF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ALSO
POSSIBLE, BUT NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY, UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STATE. AS WILL BE THE CASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WAS YESTERDAY, A FEW STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT AND SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. BY
MONDAY NIGHT, TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER FAR EASTERN ARKANSAS WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. BY TUESDAY, OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH INVOF TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEYS. THIS WILL HELP TO PROMOTE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
STATE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY NIGHT, FLOW OVER THE
STATE WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE TREKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA KICKING OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. NO
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER FAR NORTHERN ARKANSAS WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WINDS.
BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
EXPAND EASTWARD AND AMPLIFY AND PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE STATE
WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID SOUTH BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL
HELP TO PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS BUT ALSO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DURING THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME AS
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SETS UP OVER THE STATE. AT THIS TIME,
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS APPEAR LIKELIEST TO
COME CLOSE OR MEET CRITERIA THRESHOLD FOR HEAT HEADLINES DURING
THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME. IF MODEL TO CONDITION
CONSISTENCY CONTINUES, THEN HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME
POINT DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 OR SO DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, THEN QUICKLY REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
CONVECTION THIS EVENING HAS ENDED FOR THE TERMINALS BUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WHILE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR
AT TIMES. CIGS AND VSBY WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FOR ALL THE TAF
SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR MAINLY THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 70 90 75 91 / 10 10 10 20
CAMDEN AR 70 90 73 93 / 10 10 0 10
HARRISON AR 67 89 72 88 / 0 10 10 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 70 91 74 93 / 0 10 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 72 90 75 91 / 10 10 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 72 89 75 93 / 20 20 20 10
MOUNT IDA AR 70 91 74 92 / 0 10 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 68 89 72 89 / 0 10 20 40
NEWPORT AR 71 90 75 91 / 10 10 0 20
PINE BLUFF AR 71 89 74 93 / 20 20 20 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 70 91 75 92 / 0 10 0 10
SEARCY AR 70 90 73 91 / 10 10 0 10
STUTTGART AR 73 89 75 92 / 20 20 10 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56AVIATION...56
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