490
FXUS64 KLZK 161123
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
623 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH A FEW
OF THE STORMS STRONG TO POSSIBLY BRIEFLY SEVERE.
- BIGGEST CONCERN WITH ANY STRONG STORM WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
- VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES LIKELY IN SPOTS. HEAT
RELATED HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
OVERALL THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS LOCATED PRETTY MUCH ON TOP OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING FOR A
GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT BUT NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD OR INTENSE AS
WHAT WAS SEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST DURING THE DAY. AIR MASS
REMAINS VERY MOIST AND WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY, STORMS COULD
BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE WITH WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. A GREATER
CONCERN THAN SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE THE AMOUNT OF WATER THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE. PWATS REMAIN HIGH (NEAR 1.75 AND UP TO
NEARLY 2.25 INCHES) AND COULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS.
PARTS OF THE STATE HAVE SEEN EXCESS AMOUNTS OF RAIN LATELY AND
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED OR LOCALIZED FLOODING
BUT NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. CONVECTION SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE TROUGH
AXIS REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE TUESDAY AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PARENT LOW WILL HEAD OFF TO THE EAST BUT WILL DRAG A
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE STATE IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME FRAME FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
BOUNDARY WILL COME INTO PLAY WITH A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF IT AS IT PLOWS
INTO AN INCREASING MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. ONCE AGAIN
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN BUT THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY (LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING TO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING)MAY
KEEP THE OVERALL THREAT DOWN SOMEWHAT. THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT STARTS ITS PUSH THROUGH THE
STATE.
ONCE THE FRONT DOES CLEAR OUT, IT WILL BE A RETURN TO VERY WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
WHILE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT IN THIS
TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT, WILL GO GENERALLY DRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH ANY POPS OVER MAINLY THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
TODAY WILL BE THE "COOLEST" DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE 80S. AS RAIN CHANCES DECREASE, TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE WIDESPREAD 90S RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS, WE MAY BE LOOKING AT OUR
FIRST HEAT RELATED HEADLINES OF THE SEASON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT
DURING THE DAY BUT EVENTUALLY ALL TERMINALS WILL BECOME VFR WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BUT WITH THE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST TERMINALS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN AND SOME OF THE CENTRAL TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 84 70 90 74 / 50 10 10 0
CAMDEN AR 85 72 90 73 / 70 20 10 0
HARRISON AR 82 68 88 72 / 20 0 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 85 71 90 74 / 50 10 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 85 73 90 75 / 50 10 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 85 73 91 75 / 70 40 30 0
MOUNT IDA AR 86 71 90 74 / 40 10 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 81 68 88 72 / 30 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 85 73 90 76 / 60 20 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 85 72 90 74 / 70 20 20 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 85 71 90 75 / 30 10 10 0
SEARCY AR 85 70 90 73 / 50 20 10 0
STUTTGART AR 85 74 89 76 / 70 20 20 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...56
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