225
FXUS64 KLZK 161925
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
225 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH A FEW
OF THE STORMS STRONG TO POSSIBLY BRIEFLY SEVERE.
- BIGGEST CONCERN WITH ANY STRONG STORM WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
- VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN EXCESS OF 100
DEGREES LIKELY IN SPOTS. HEAT RELATED HEADLINES MAY NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS UNFOLDING FOR THE SRN CNTRL
US, W/ WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCRSG HUMIDITY LEVELS LEADING TO
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. RECENT RADAR IMGRY DEPICTED
SCATTERED DIURNAL PRECIP ACTIVITY ACRS THE GREATER AR REGION.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, W/
PERHAPS A FEW MORE CLUSTERS OF STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ACRS SERN
AR THIS EVNG.
THRU THE FCST PD, BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE SERN US/GREATER APPALACHIA, W/ LEE SFC CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS, DRIVING A FETCH OF LOW-LVL SWRLY FLOW. INCRSG
LOW-LVL WAA AND AMPLIFYING H500 RIDGING WL SETUP A FAVORABLE
PATTERN FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON LOCALLY. BY MID
TO LATE THIS WEEK, DAILY HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO THE
LOW TO MID 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS, ALONGSIDE SULTRY DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, RESULTING IN "AIR YOU CAN
WEAR". THIS PATTERN WL ALSO FAVOR DAILY AFTN THUNDERSTORMS OF THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VARIETY ACRS THE FA, W/ ANY SEVERE THREAT
(MAINLY WIND GUSTS AND HAIL) REMAINING CONDITIONAL TO EACH STORM.
SOME GOOD NEWS INCLUDES AN OPTIMISTIC RAINFALL FORECAST, W/
SIGNIFICANTLY LESSER TOTAL AMOUNTS EXPECTED THRU THE NEXT 7 DAYS
AFTER AN EXCESSIVELY WET PERIOD THRU MAY TO MID-JUNE, HOWEVER,
DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND ASCTD CLOUD COVER WL BE THE PRIMARY SOURCE
OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT MOVING FORWARD.
THAT BEING SAID, THE MAIN CONCERN AND TALKING POINTS THRU THE PD
WL BE THE HEAT, W/ HEAT INDEX VALUES BREAKING 100 DEGREES BY WED
AFTN, AND A MORE CONCERNING 105 DEGREES BY FRI, W/ HEAT HEADLINES
POSSIBLY BECOMING A DAILY OCCURRENCE BY THEN AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
LOWER CLOUDS FM THIS MRNG HAVE MIXED OUT W/ MOST SITES AT VFR LVLS
W/ SOME LINGERING MID-LVL CLOUD COVER. SRLY WINDS WL BE NOTED
ACRS AREA TERMINALS, W/ MORE VARIABLE NERLY WINDS ACRS NRN AR.
SCTD PRECIP, INCLUDING SOME VCTS WL BE NOTED OVER THE STATE THRU
THIS AFTN TO EVNG, W/ MORE PREDOMINANT TS POSSIBLE AROUND SERN
TERMINALS. PATCHY FG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACRS MUCH OF THE
N/ERN HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER
ON THE MAGNITUDE OF VISBY RESTRICTIONS FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 70 89 75 91 / 20 10 0 40
CAMDEN AR 71 90 73 92 / 30 30 0 10
HARRISON AR 67 89 72 86 / 0 0 10 50
HOT SPRINGS AR 71 90 74 91 / 10 10 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 72 90 75 91 / 20 20 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 72 89 75 92 / 60 50 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 70 91 74 91 / 10 10 0 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 68 89 73 86 / 10 0 10 60
NEWPORT AR 72 90 75 91 / 40 20 0 30
PINE BLUFF AR 72 90 75 93 / 40 30 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 70 92 75 91 / 10 10 0 30
SEARCY AR 70 90 74 91 / 20 10 0 20
STUTTGART AR 73 89 76 91 / 40 30 0 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...72
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