575
FXUS64 KLZK 180812
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
312 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 207 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM HAZARD.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY RANGE FROM
100-110 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO W AND NW AR EARLY
THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO. OVERALL THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS GO THROUGH THE
MORNING AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. DESPITE AN ANTICIPATED WEAKENING TREND, A MIX OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NRN HALF OF AR
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON, AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NW AR. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH SE WITH TIME CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD THE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF AN MCS TO DEVELOP WHICH WOULD GREATLY ENHANCE THE
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY
UNTIL AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW EXITS
THE REGION.
THE RAINY BOUT OF WEATHER OCCUPYING MUCH OF S/CNTRL CONUS OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED WITH AN
EXPANSIVE AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE THE SRN ROCKIES.
CONDITIONS WILL FEEL SUMMER LIKE IN A QUICK FASHION AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY APPEAR MINIMAL AND THE HEAT
WILL REALLY CRANK UP. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURE FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S, PERHAPS UPPER 90S IN
PLACES OVER THE WEEKEND. WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN
PLACE, THE HEAT INDEX WILL FEEL MORE LIKE 100-110 DEGREES. HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS FRIDAY, LIKELY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, AND PROBABLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOW IS THE TIME TO
PREPARE FOR HOT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING ACROSS
NRN TERMINALS BETWEEN 08/10Z WED, SPREADING SE TO INCLUDE CNTRL
SITES NEAR 11/12Z WED. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE OF TSRA
ACTIVITY WHERE VIS'BYS MAY BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR BRIEFLY.
AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE S/SW AT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS BOTH OVERNIGHT AND ON
WED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 90 71 90 72 / 50 70 10 0
CAMDEN AR 93 73 90 73 / 10 40 40 10
HARRISON AR 84 68 87 68 / 70 40 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 92 71 91 72 / 20 60 30 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 92 73 91 74 / 30 70 30 0
MONTICELLO AR 93 75 90 74 / 10 50 60 10
MOUNT IDA AR 91 70 91 72 / 20 60 30 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 85 68 88 68 / 80 50 10 0
NEWPORT AR 92 72 91 73 / 50 70 20 0
PINE BLUFF AR 93 73 90 73 / 10 60 50 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 90 71 91 72 / 30 60 20 0
SEARCY AR 91 71 90 72 / 30 70 20 0
STUTTGART AR 92 73 90 74 / 20 70 40 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70
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