961
FXUS64 KLZK 181724 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1224 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 637 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM HAZARD.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY RANGE FROM
100-110 DEGREES.
- HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO W AND NW AR EARLY
THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO. OVERALL THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS GO THROUGH THE
MORNING AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. DESPITE AN ANTICIPATED WEAKENING TREND, A MIX OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NRN HALF OF AR
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON, AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NW AR. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH SE WITH TIME CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD THE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF AN MCS TO DEVELOP WHICH WOULD GREATLY ENHANCE THE
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY
UNTIL AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW EXITS
THE REGION.
THE RAINY BOUT OF WEATHER OCCUPYING MUCH OF S/CNTRL CONUS OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED WITH AN
EXPANSIVE AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE THE SRN ROCKIES.
CONDITIONS WILL FEEL SUMMER LIKE IN A QUICK FASHION AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY APPEAR MINIMAL AND THE HEAT
WILL REALLY CRANK UP. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURE FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S, PERHAPS UPPER 90S IN
PLACES OVER THE WEEKEND. WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN
PLACE, THE HEAT INDEX WILL FEEL MORE LIKE 100-110 DEGREES. HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS FRIDAY, LIKELY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, AND PROBABLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOW IS THE TIME TO
PREPARE FOR HOT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO W AND NW AR EARLY
THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO. OVERALL THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS GO THROUGH THE
MORNING AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. DESPITE AN ANTICIPATED WEAKENING TREND, A MIX OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NRN HALF OF AR
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON, AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NW AR. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH SE WITH TIME CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD THE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF AN MCS TO DEVELOP WHICH WOULD GREATLY ENHANCE THE
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY
UNTIL AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW EXITS
THE REGION.
THE RAINY BOUT OF WEATHER OCCUPYING MUCH OF S/CNTRL CONUS OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED WITH AN
EXPANSIVE AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE THE SRN ROCKIES.
CONDITIONS WILL FEEL SUMMER LIKE IN A QUICK FASHION AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY APPEAR MINIMAL AND THE HEAT
WILL REALLY CRANK UP. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURE FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S, PERHAPS UPPER 90S IN
PLACES OVER THE WEEKEND. WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN
PLACE, THE HEAT INDEX WILL FEEL MORE LIKE 100-110 DEGREES. HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS FRIDAY, LIKELY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, AND PROBABLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOW IS THE TIME TO
PREPARE FOR HOT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL REDUCTION IN CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH MAY AVOID MOST AREA TERMINALS. STORMS MAY
ORGANIZE INTO A LINEAR FASHION AFTER 19/06Z AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS COULD PROVIDE INCREASED COVERAGE OF RA/TS ACTIVITY
AT AREA TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 71 90 72 93 / 70 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 73 90 73 93 / 40 40 10 10
HARRISON AR 68 87 68 91 / 40 10 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 71 91 72 94 / 60 30 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 73 91 74 94 / 70 30 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 75 90 74 94 / 50 60 10 20
MOUNT IDA AR 70 91 72 93 / 60 30 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 68 88 68 92 / 50 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 72 91 73 93 / 70 20 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 73 90 73 93 / 60 50 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 71 91 72 93 / 60 20 0 10
SEARCY AR 71 90 72 93 / 70 20 0 0
STUTTGART AR 73 90 74 92 / 70 40 10 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...67
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