602
FXUS64 KLZK 190539
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1239 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
-CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
-HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMID AIR WILL LEAD TO INCREASING HEAT
INDICES AND HEAT DANGER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE STATE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BUT
AFTERNOON CAMS ARE STRUGGLING TO GET A GRASP ON WHERE THE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR. BY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT THAT ONE OR TWO BROKEN
LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY MERGE AND MOVE SOUTH. THERE COULD BE AN
INCREASED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, BUT THE MAIN CONCERN
MAY ACTUALLY BE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING GIVEN EXPECTED HIGH
RAINFALL RATES.
BEHIND THIS EXPECTED LINE OF STORMS A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH A LARGELY RAIN-FREE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS.
BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, H500 RIDGING WILL EXPAND OVER THE
REGION AND WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. THIS WILL
PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID AIR WHICH WILL COMBINE
TO PROVIDE HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT
TIMES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL
INTO NE AR. THIS COMPLEX OF CONVECTION SHOULD DRIFT S THROUGH THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO CNTRL/SRN AR ON THURS.
WINDS WILL BE W/SW AT AROUND 10 KTS ON THURS. PRECIP SHOULD
DIMINISH ACROSS THE STATE BY LATE THURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 90 72 93 75 / 10 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 90 73 93 74 / 40 10 10 0
HARRISON AR 87 68 91 72 / 10 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 91 72 94 74 / 30 0 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 91 74 94 76 / 30 0 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 90 74 94 76 / 60 10 20 0
MOUNT IDA AR 91 72 93 74 / 30 0 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 88 68 92 73 / 10 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 91 73 93 76 / 20 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 90 73 93 75 / 50 10 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 91 72 93 74 / 20 0 10 0
SEARCY AR 90 72 93 74 / 20 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 90 74 92 77 / 40 10 10 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...70
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