928
FXUS64 KLZK 190839
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
339 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
-CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
-HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMID AIR WILL LEAD TO INCREASING HEAT
INDICES AND HEAT DANGER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NRN AR THIS THURSDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO
DROP SWRD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY MIDDAY, CONVECTION SHOULD
MOVE INTO SRN AR AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND OR LARGE HAIL. DUE TO RAIN AND CLOUDS
IN THE FORECAST TODAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN
90 AND 100 DEGREES.
AFTERWARDS, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT RAINFALL
WILL MOVE E WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. FLOW
BETWEEN FEATURES WILL BRIEFLY BECOME NWRLY THURSDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. HEADING INTO FRIDAY, INCLUDING THE WEEKEND, THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWRD BECOMING CENTERED OVER TOP THE REGION.
ON MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EWRD OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS
WITH SW FLOW BRINGING LOW END POPS TO THE REGION AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TUESDAY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL
HEATING. THEREAFTER, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE
REGION REDUCING AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES.
THE MAIN STORY DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 90S WITH THE
HIGHEST READINGS OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF WITH READINGS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER
TO UPPER 70S. WHEN COMBINING HOT TEMPERATURES WITH OPPRESSIVE DEW
POINTS, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 105
DEGREES ON FRIDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD CREEP UPWARDS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPARENT T'S BETWEEN 105 TO 110
DEGREES. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS, HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL
INTO NE AR. THIS COMPLEX OF CONVECTION SHOULD DRIFT S THROUGH THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO CNTRL/SRN AR ON THURS.
WINDS WILL BE W/SW AT AROUND 10 KTS ON THURS. PRECIP SHOULD
DIMINISH ACROSS THE STATE BY LATE THURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 91 71 93 75 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 91 73 94 74 / 40 10 20 0
HARRISON AR 87 67 92 73 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 91 73 94 75 / 30 0 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 91 73 94 76 / 30 0 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 91 74 94 76 / 50 10 20 0
MOUNT IDA AR 91 73 94 74 / 20 0 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 88 67 92 73 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 91 72 93 76 / 10 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 91 74 95 76 / 50 0 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 92 72 94 75 / 10 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 91 71 94 74 / 10 10 0 0
STUTTGART AR 90 74 93 77 / 40 10 10 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70
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