995
FXUS64 KLZK 060533
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1233 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATE NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE ROLLS, ORIENTED
MERIDONAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FORCING DUE TO THIS PHENOMENA
HAS PRODUCED A FEW SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL, WIDELY SCATTERED (15-24%
COVERAGE) DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A GREATER (>35%)
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MID SOUTH DURING
THIS PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL. MOST DAYS WILL
EXPERIENCE A SCATTERED (30-50%) COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS AT KHRO AND KBPK. ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS MIGHT SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
BEFORE DISSIPATING WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THEN LIGHT S/SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HI-RES CAMS CONTINUE OVER MULTIPLE
MODEL RUNS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH, THE CHANCE FOR POPS IS LOW, ELECTED
TO PUT PROB30 GROUPS AT KHRO AND KPBK. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 72 91 72 90 / 30 60 20 60
CAMDEN AR 73 94 73 95 / 10 40 10 40
HARRISON AR 69 88 70 87 / 40 60 20 60
HOT SPRINGS AR 73 94 73 94 / 10 50 10 50
LITTLE ROCK AR 75 93 75 93 / 10 50 10 50
MONTICELLO AR 75 94 75 95 / 10 40 10 50
MOUNT IDA AR 72 93 72 92 / 10 50 10 50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 70 89 70 87 / 40 60 20 60
NEWPORT AR 74 93 74 92 / 30 50 20 50
PINE BLUFF AR 74 93 74 93 / 10 40 10 50
RUSSELLVILLE AR 73 93 73 92 / 20 50 20 50
SEARCY AR 73 93 73 93 / 20 50 20 50
STUTTGART AR 76 93 75 93 / 10 40 20 50
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...KELLY
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