271
FXUS64 KLZK 061943
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
243 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
LATEST DATA FROM LOCAL RADARS INDICATE WIDELY SCATTERED (~20
PERCENT COVERAGE) ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA,
MOVING EASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED IN AN AREA OF VERY
WEAKLY SHEARED, WEAKLY FORCED, MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING.
SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH DURING AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD, THEN WILL
FLATTEN AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, A OVERALL DECREASE IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. WOULD
EXPECT HEAT HEADLINES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST TERMINALS WITH
A FEW MINOR EXCEPTIONS WHICH WILL BE MENTIONED LATER IN THIS
DISCUSSION. ACROSS ALL SITES, VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY EVENING AS SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD, BUT REMAIN ISOLATED OVERALL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION OF
DEGRADED FLIGHT CATEGORY MENTIONED ABOVE WILL OCCUR FROM EARLY
MONDAY MORNING UNTIL AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE AT THE SITES OF
KHOT AND KADF AS VSBY IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY.
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS ALL SITES WILL BE VARIABLE FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 72 92 72 91 / 30 60 20 70
CAMDEN AR 74 96 73 93 / 10 40 10 60
HARRISON AR 70 88 69 86 / 40 50 20 70
HOT SPRINGS AR 74 95 73 93 / 10 50 20 60
LITTLE ROCK AR 75 94 75 93 / 10 40 20 60
MONTICELLO AR 75 95 74 93 / 10 40 10 60
MOUNT IDA AR 72 94 72 90 / 10 40 20 70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 70 88 70 88 / 40 60 20 70
NEWPORT AR 74 94 74 93 / 30 40 20 60
PINE BLUFF AR 75 94 74 93 / 10 30 10 60
RUSSELLVILLE AR 73 93 73 90 / 20 50 20 60
SEARCY AR 72 93 73 93 / 20 50 20 60
STUTTGART AR 76 94 75 93 / 20 30 20 50
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...74
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