457
FXUS64 KLZK 070548
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1248 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
LATEST DATA FROM LOCAL RADARS INDICATE WIDELY SCATTERED (~20
PERCENT COVERAGE) ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA,
MOVING EASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED IN AN AREA OF VERY
WEAKLY SHEARED, WEAKLY FORCED, MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING.
SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH DURING AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD, THEN WILL
FLATTEN AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, A OVERALL DECREASE IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. WOULD
EXPECT HEAT HEADLINES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ENTERING
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT LIKELY
DISSIPATE AS LATEST SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARMING CLOUD TOPS
WITHIN THE COMPLEX. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTER
SUNRISE, LIGHT S/SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
SUNSET, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. HI-RES CAMS SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MAINLY
IMPACT NORTHERN TERMINALS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE
TREKS ACROSS THE STATE. THE IMPACTS TO AVIATION WILL BE MINIMAL
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS, STRONG GUSTY WINDS FOR
SHORT DURATIONS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 92 72 91 72 / 60 30 60 30
CAMDEN AR 96 72 93 72 / 40 20 60 20
HARRISON AR 88 70 87 69 / 50 20 70 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 96 72 93 72 / 50 20 50 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 95 75 92 74 / 40 20 50 30
MONTICELLO AR 95 75 93 75 / 30 20 50 20
MOUNT IDA AR 94 72 90 72 / 50 20 70 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 88 70 88 70 / 60 20 70 30
NEWPORT AR 93 74 92 73 / 50 20 50 30
PINE BLUFF AR 95 73 92 73 / 40 20 50 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 93 72 92 72 / 50 20 60 30
SEARCY AR 94 72 92 72 / 50 20 50 30
STUTTGART AR 94 75 93 75 / 30 20 50 30
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...KELLY
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