443
FXUS64 KLZK 101948
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
248 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
LATEST OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MUCAPE VALUES OVER
2000 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH VALUES OVER 4000 CENTERED
ALONG THE RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE ENERGY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION,
FORCING FOR INITIATION IS VERY WEAK AND SMALL SCALE IN NATURE.
ONLY ISOLATED CELLS WERE NOTED AS OF 19Z. ANY ADDITIONAL CELLS
THAT DO FORM WILL DISSIPATE BY 01Z.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY, WITH
EASTERN SECTIONS FAVORED FOR SINGLE CELL DEVELOPMENT.
ON SUNDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTH. THIS FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FAR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER, THE FEATURE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
ADEQUATE FORCING TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO EXPAND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
THROUGH THE MID SOUTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD. VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED (<= 20% COVERAGE) -SHRA/TSRA WILL
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
OTHERWISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 73 94 74 94 / 0 20 10 30
CAMDEN AR 73 96 74 95 / 10 10 0 10
HARRISON AR 71 92 72 89 / 0 10 10 50
HOT SPRINGS AR 74 97 74 96 / 10 10 0 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 76 94 75 95 / 10 20 0 20
MONTICELLO AR 74 94 75 95 / 10 20 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 73 94 73 94 / 10 10 0 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 71 92 71 91 / 0 20 10 50
NEWPORT AR 74 95 73 95 / 0 20 0 20
PINE BLUFF AR 73 94 74 95 / 10 20 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 74 95 73 94 / 10 10 0 20
SEARCY AR 73 94 73 94 / 10 20 0 20
STUTTGART AR 75 94 75 94 / 10 20 10 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ121-130-137-230.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55
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