895  
FXUS64 KLZK 102337  
AFDLZK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  
637 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
LATEST OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MUCAPE VALUES OVER  
2000 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH VALUES OVER 4000 CENTERED  
ALONG THE RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE ENERGY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION,  
FORCING FOR INITIATION IS VERY WEAK AND SMALL SCALE IN NATURE.  
ONLY ISOLATED CELLS WERE NOTED AS OF 19Z. ANY ADDITIONAL CELLS  
THAT DO FORM WILL DISSIPATE BY 01Z.  
 
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY, WITH  
EASTERN SECTIONS FAVORED FOR SINGLE CELL DEVELOPMENT.  
 
ON SUNDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM  
THE NORTH. THIS FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FAR INTO THE  
FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER, THE FEATURE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE  
ADEQUATE FORCING TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO EXPAND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,  
THROUGH THE MID SOUTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THIS  
PERIOD. VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT ALL  
AREA TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN  
PRIMARILY BY THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY MAY APPROACH TAF  
SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO  
INCLUDE A CHANGE GROUP AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS TO  
VEER A BIT TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW WHILE GENERALLY  
REMAINING BELOW 10 KTS.  
 
CAVANAUGH  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BATESVILLE AR 73 94 74 94 / 0 20 10 30  
CAMDEN AR 73 96 74 95 / 10 10 0 10  
HARRISON AR 71 92 72 89 / 0 10 10 50  
HOT SPRINGS AR 74 97 74 96 / 10 10 0 20  
LITTLE ROCK AR 76 94 75 95 / 10 20 0 20  
MONTICELLO AR 74 94 75 95 / 10 20 10 10  
MOUNT IDA AR 73 94 73 94 / 10 10 0 20  
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 71 92 71 91 / 0 20 10 50  
NEWPORT AR 74 95 73 95 / 0 20 0 20  
PINE BLUFF AR 73 94 74 95 / 10 20 10 10  
RUSSELLVILLE AR 74 95 73 94 / 10 10 0 20  
SEARCY AR 73 94 73 94 / 10 20 0 20  
STUTTGART AR 75 94 75 94 / 10 20 10 10  
 

 
   
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ121-130-137-230.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...55  
LONG TERM....55  
AVIATION...66  
 
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