836
FXUS64 KLZK 110509 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1209 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
LATEST OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MUCAPE VALUES OVER
2000 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH VALUES OVER 4000 CENTERED
ALONG THE RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE ENERGY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION,
FORCING FOR INITIATION IS VERY WEAK AND SMALL SCALE IN NATURE.
ONLY ISOLATED CELLS WERE NOTED AS OF 19Z. ANY ADDITIONAL CELLS
THAT DO FORM WILL DISSIPATE BY 01Z.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY, WITH
EASTERN SECTIONS FAVORED FOR SINGLE CELL DEVELOPMENT.
ON SUNDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTH. THIS FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FAR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER, THE FEATURE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
ADEQUATE FORCING TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO EXPAND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
THROUGH THE MID SOUTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD. VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. S-SW WINDS
MAY INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY FRIDAY AT SOME
TERMINALS WITH GUSTS ABOVE 15 KTS POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN, BUT LIMITED COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 94 74 94 73 / 20 10 30 20
CAMDEN AR 96 74 95 74 / 10 0 10 10
HARRISON AR 92 72 89 70 / 10 10 50 40
HOT SPRINGS AR 97 74 96 74 / 10 0 20 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 94 75 95 75 / 20 0 20 10
MONTICELLO AR 94 75 95 76 / 20 10 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 94 73 94 73 / 10 0 20 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 92 71 91 71 / 20 10 50 30
NEWPORT AR 95 73 95 74 / 20 0 20 20
PINE BLUFF AR 94 74 95 75 / 20 10 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 95 73 94 74 / 10 0 20 20
SEARCY AR 94 73 94 73 / 20 0 20 20
STUTTGART AR 94 75 94 75 / 20 10 10 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...67
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