405
FXUS64 KLZK 072329
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
629 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S ACROSS AR
EARLY THIS THURSDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE TODAY, LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
ALOFT, AN UPPER RIDGE WAS SITUATED BETWEEN THE FOUR CORNERS AND SRN
PLAINS. LOCALLY, NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
BEGINNING SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN CONUS
WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTING ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL
PLAINS. ACROSS THE MS VALLEY, THE REGION WILL RESIDE BETWEEN
SUPPRESSED RIDGING TO THE W AND E, AND THE TROUGH JUST TO THE N AND
W, THROUGH EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS INCREASED POP CHANCES
FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET EACH EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BECOMING
S/SWRLY, IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS.
INCREASING SRLY FLOW WILL RAMP UP DEW POINTS AS WELL AS
ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. PW VALUES INCREASING
TO/ABOVE 2 INCHES IS PROBABLE AS EARLY AS MONDAY WHICH WILL SERVE
AS A CONTRIBUTOR FOR INCREASED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
TODAY, HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF AR STARTING TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT TODAY ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE AR
RIVER VALLEY WHERE HEAT INDICES EXCEED 105 DEGREES. FOR FRIDAY,
HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED EWRD TO COVER ALL OF THE AR
RIVER VALLEY. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED BEYOND
FRIDAY BUT THOSE WILL BE ANALYZED ON A DAY OR TWO IN ADVANCE
BASIS. AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, IN ADDITION TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE, COULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THE BECOMING OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BY LATER FRIDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 72 97 74 95 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 72 98 74 96 / 0 0 0 10
HARRISON AR 72 96 73 95 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 74 99 75 97 / 0 0 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 74 97 75 96 / 0 0 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 73 98 74 97 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 73 99 74 97 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 71 95 73 95 / 10 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 73 95 74 95 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 72 98 73 96 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 74 99 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 71 97 72 97 / 0 0 0 10
STUTTGART AR 74 97 74 95 / 0 0 0 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ031-032-039-
121-122-130-138-230-238.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ121-130-230.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...73
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