942
FXUS64 KLZK 100534
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1234 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
ALL QUIET EARLY THIS SUN MORNING ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE...WITH
WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS ONGOING. TEMPS HAD DROPPED INTO THE MID 70S
TO LOW 80S...WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY NOTED. REGIONAL RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX OF CONVECTION OVER NWRN KS MOVING
E/SE OVER TIME. NEAR-TERM HIGH-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY DROPPING SE OVER TIME...POTENTIALLY MAKING IT INTO SW MO/NE
OK BY AROUND SUNRISE. IF THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER...IT COULD
MAKE IT INTO NWRN AR BY JUST AFTER SUNRISE. EVEN WITHOUT THE
CONVECTION...THERE WILL REMAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN OUTFLOW TO DROP
SE INTO THE STATE. AS A RESULT...AND WITH SUPPORT OF HIGH RES
GUIDANCE...HAVE INCLUDED SOME MENTIONABLE LOW-END POPS ACROSS NWRN
SECTIONS THIS SUN MORNING FROM AROUND SUNRISE TO MIDDAY. BEYOND THAT
TIMEFRAME...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR PULSE-TYPE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...WHICH LOOKS
MORE POSSIBLE TODAY THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO FURTHER WEAKENING
RIDGING ALOFT.
THE TREND OF WEAKENING RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS IN PLACE TO THE SW OF AR LATE LAST
WEEK WILL MOVE FURTHER WEST AND AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN CONUS. A LARGER
SCALE TROUGH WILL SETUP OVER THE CENTRAL US...WITH THE MID-SOUTH AND
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY REGIONS ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH.
LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT MAY ALLOW ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLATED
TO EVEN SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY INTO WED...MAYBE
INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING MORE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL COME TUE AND WED AFTERNOONS.
HOWEVER...AS TIME GOES ON THIS WEEK...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AS AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BEGINS TO DRIFT
CLOSER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY START LIMITING THE
COVERAGE/POTENTIAL OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION BY FRI INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THOUGH REMAINING AROUND NORMAL FOR HIGHS EACH DAY. AS A
RESULT...WILL NOT REQUIRE ANY HEAT HEADLINES STARTING TODAY...THOUGH
IT WILL AGAIN BE CLOSE FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THE LOWERING TEMPS OVER
TIME WILL PRIMARILY BE DUE TO THE INCREASED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. BY LATER IN THE WEEK...EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM SLOWLY BACK
JUST ABOVE NORMAL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DECREASES WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING INCREASING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 94 72 93 73 / 20 10 20 10
CAMDEN AR 94 72 92 72 / 20 20 30 10
HARRISON AR 92 71 91 70 / 40 10 30 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 96 74 94 73 / 20 10 30 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 94 74 93 74 / 20 20 20 10
MONTICELLO AR 95 74 93 74 / 20 10 30 10
MOUNT IDA AR 95 72 93 71 / 20 10 30 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 92 71 92 71 / 40 10 30 10
NEWPORT AR 93 73 93 73 / 20 10 20 10
PINE BLUFF AR 94 73 93 73 / 20 20 20 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 97 75 96 74 / 20 10 20 10
SEARCY AR 94 72 93 73 / 20 10 20 10
STUTTGART AR 93 74 93 74 / 20 10 20 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...62
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