623
FXUS64 KLZK 102303
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
603 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
ALL QUIET EARLY THIS SUN MORNING ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE...WITH
WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS ONGOING. TEMPS HAD DROPPED INTO THE MID 70S
TO LOW 80S...WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY NOTED. REGIONAL RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX OF CONVECTION OVER NWRN KS MOVING
E/SE OVER TIME. NEAR-TERM HIGH-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY DROPPING SE OVER TIME...POTENTIALLY MAKING IT INTO SW MO/NE
OK BY AROUND SUNRISE. IF THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER...IT COULD
MAKE IT INTO NWRN AR BY JUST AFTER SUNRISE. EVEN WITHOUT THE
CONVECTION...THERE WILL REMAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN OUTFLOW TO DROP
SE INTO THE STATE. AS A RESULT...AND WITH SUPPORT OF HIGH RES
GUIDANCE...HAVE INCLUDED SOME MENTIONABLE LOW-END POPS ACROSS NWRN
SECTIONS THIS SUN MORNING FROM AROUND SUNRISE TO MIDDAY. BEYOND THAT
TIMEFRAME...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR PULSE-TYPE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...WHICH LOOKS
MORE POSSIBLE TODAY THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO FURTHER WEAKENING
RIDGING ALOFT.
THE TREND OF WEAKENING RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS IN PLACE TO THE SW OF AR LATE LAST
WEEK WILL MOVE FURTHER WEST AND AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN CONUS. A LARGER
SCALE TROUGH WILL SETUP OVER THE CENTRAL US...WITH THE MID-SOUTH AND
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY REGIONS ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH.
LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT MAY ALLOW ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLATED
TO EVEN SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY INTO WED...MAYBE
INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING MORE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL COME TUE AND WED AFTERNOONS.
HOWEVER...AS TIME GOES ON THIS WEEK...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AS AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BEGINS TO DRIFT
CLOSER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY START LIMITING THE
COVERAGE/POTENTIAL OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION BY FRI INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THOUGH REMAINING AROUND NORMAL FOR HIGHS EACH DAY. AS A
RESULT...WILL NOT REQUIRE ANY HEAT HEADLINES STARTING TODAY...THOUGH
IT WILL AGAIN BE CLOSE FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THE LOWERING TEMPS OVER
TIME WILL PRIMARILY BE DUE TO THE INCREASED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. BY LATER IN THE WEEK...EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM SLOWLY BACK
JUST ABOVE NORMAL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DECREASES WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING INCREASING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT S/SE WINDS
WILL PERSIST WITH DIURNAL CU WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO PLACE AT ANY ONE TAF SITE. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES
IMPACT A TAF SITE WOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 72 94 73 95 / 0 10 10 30
CAMDEN AR 72 95 72 95 / 10 20 10 40
HARRISON AR 70 92 70 91 / 10 20 10 40
HOT SPRINGS AR 73 96 73 96 / 0 20 10 40
LITTLE ROCK AR 74 94 75 94 / 0 20 10 40
MONTICELLO AR 74 96 74 95 / 10 20 10 40
MOUNT IDA AR 71 94 71 94 / 0 20 10 40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 70 92 71 92 / 0 20 10 40
NEWPORT AR 72 94 73 94 / 0 10 10 30
PINE BLUFF AR 73 94 73 95 / 10 20 10 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 73 96 74 96 / 0 10 10 30
SEARCY AR 72 95 73 95 / 0 20 10 30
STUTTGART AR 74 94 74 94 / 0 10 10 30
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...KELLY
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