307
FXUS64 KLZK 110518 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1218 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
ALL QUIET EARLY THIS SUN MORNING ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE...WITH
WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS ONGOING. TEMPS HAD DROPPED INTO THE MID 70S
TO LOW 80S...WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY NOTED. REGIONAL RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX OF CONVECTION OVER NWRN KS MOVING
E/SE OVER TIME. NEAR-TERM HIGH-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY DROPPING SE OVER TIME...POTENTIALLY MAKING IT INTO SW MO/NE
OK BY AROUND SUNRISE. IF THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER...IT COULD
MAKE IT INTO NWRN AR BY JUST AFTER SUNRISE. EVEN WITHOUT THE
CONVECTION...THERE WILL REMAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN OUTFLOW TO DROP
SE INTO THE STATE. AS A RESULT...AND WITH SUPPORT OF HIGH RES
GUIDANCE...HAVE INCLUDED SOME MENTIONABLE LOW-END POPS ACROSS NWRN
SECTIONS THIS SUN MORNING FROM AROUND SUNRISE TO MIDDAY. BEYOND THAT
TIMEFRAME...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR PULSE-TYPE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...WHICH LOOKS
MORE POSSIBLE TODAY THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO FURTHER WEAKENING
RIDGING ALOFT.
THE TREND OF WEAKENING RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS IN PLACE TO THE SW OF AR LATE LAST
WEEK WILL MOVE FURTHER WEST AND AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN CONUS. A LARGER
SCALE TROUGH WILL SETUP OVER THE CENTRAL US...WITH THE MID-SOUTH AND
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY REGIONS ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH.
LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT MAY ALLOW ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLATED
TO EVEN SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY INTO WED...MAYBE
INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING MORE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL COME TUE AND WED AFTERNOONS.
HOWEVER...AS TIME GOES ON THIS WEEK...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AS AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BEGINS TO DRIFT
CLOSER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY START LIMITING THE
COVERAGE/POTENTIAL OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION BY FRI INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THOUGH REMAINING AROUND NORMAL FOR HIGHS EACH DAY. AS A
RESULT...WILL NOT REQUIRE ANY HEAT HEADLINES STARTING TODAY...THOUGH
IT WILL AGAIN BE CLOSE FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THE LOWERING TEMPS OVER
TIME WILL PRIMARILY BE DUE TO THE INCREASED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. BY LATER IN THE WEEK...EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM SLOWLY BACK
JUST ABOVE NORMAL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DECREASES WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING INCREASING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
CONVECTION OVER SWRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING MAY DRIFT OR DEVELOP
INTO NRN AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AND
PROB30 FOR THIS POTENTIAL. MAY HAVE TO UPGRADE TO TSRA IF ACTIVITY
LOOKS MORE INTENSE AS IT APPROACHES HRO/BPK. FURTHER
SOUTH...EXPECTED MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO THE
AFTERNOON HRS. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY
BE POSSIBLE...JUST TOO LOW CONFIDENCE ON LOCATION TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 72 93 72 92 / 10 30 20 50
CAMDEN AR 72 93 72 92 / 10 40 10 40
HARRISON AR 69 88 69 87 / 20 50 20 50
HOT SPRINGS AR 73 94 73 93 / 10 40 10 50
LITTLE ROCK AR 74 91 74 91 / 10 30 10 50
MONTICELLO AR 74 93 74 92 / 10 40 10 50
MOUNT IDA AR 71 93 71 92 / 10 40 10 50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 71 91 69 88 / 10 40 20 50
NEWPORT AR 73 93 74 92 / 10 20 10 40
PINE BLUFF AR 73 92 73 92 / 10 30 10 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 74 95 74 94 / 10 30 20 50
SEARCY AR 72 93 72 92 / 10 30 10 50
STUTTGART AR 74 93 74 92 / 10 30 10 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...62
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