636
FXUS64 KLZK 112325
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
625 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE EARLY
THIS MON MORNING...WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S TO UPPER 70S NOTED FOR MOST AREAS. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER SWRN MO INTO NERN OK AND SERN
KS...WHICH WAS GENERALLY DRIFTING EWD OVER TIME. HOWEVER...AN
OUTFLOW OVER SWRN MO WAS DROPPING SE INTO NWRN AR EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY TRIGGER SOME NEW CONVECTION BEHIND THIS OUTFLOW.
AS A RESULT...HAVE MENTIONED POPS ACROSS NWRN/NRN SECTIONS THIS
MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF THIS MON...WILL SEE SOME CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS...DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS MORNING
OUTFLOW WILL END UP. THIS REMNANT OUTFLOW WILL BE THE WHERE THE AREA
OF BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DO
THINK THAT SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE ELSE AS WELL. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOW END POPS
MENTIONED FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A BIT HIGHER POPS
FURTHER NW WHERE THE OUTFLOW MAY REMAIN.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE THE NRN CONUS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH AR REMAINING ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS
TROUGH. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS...KEEPING THE EXTENSIVE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AT BAY FOR NOW. THE
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON PULSE CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE WITH THE LOWERED HEIGHTS ALOFT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...WITH BEST CHANCES AROUND WED. THESE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING
ATTEMPTS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THIS RIDGING TREND IS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH DIFFERING MED-
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT...KEEP AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THOUGH REMAINING AROUND NORMAL FOR HIGHS EACH DAY. THE
LOWERING TEMPS OVER TIME WILL PRIMARILY BE DUE TO THE INCREASED
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. BY LATER IN THE WEEK...EXPECT
HIGHS TO WARM SLOWLY AS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DECREASES WITH
THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING INCREASING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
WILL DISSIPATE BY 0230Z. A GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED AFTER 20Z, ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM JASPER, TO
MOUNTAIN HOME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 72 95 72 93 / 0 30 20 40
CAMDEN AR 73 95 73 94 / 0 20 0 40
HARRISON AR 70 90 69 88 / 10 30 20 40
HOT SPRINGS AR 74 96 73 95 / 0 30 10 50
LITTLE ROCK AR 75 94 75 93 / 10 20 10 40
MONTICELLO AR 75 96 75 96 / 10 20 10 40
MOUNT IDA AR 72 94 72 94 / 10 40 10 40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 71 91 70 90 / 10 30 20 50
NEWPORT AR 73 95 73 93 / 0 10 10 40
PINE BLUFF AR 74 96 74 95 / 10 20 10 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 74 96 74 95 / 10 20 10 40
SEARCY AR 72 96 73 94 / 10 20 10 40
STUTTGART AR 74 96 75 94 / 10 10 10 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....75
AVIATION...55
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