033
FXUS64 KLZK 291652
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1152 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
-HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 9
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES BRINGING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT THU AUG 29 2025
SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS WITH
BANDS OF SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE LOW STRATUS DECK
CURRENTLY OVER MOST OF THE STATE SHOULD KEEP FOG POTENTIAL AT BAY
FOR MOST OF THE STATE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS
AROUND HARRISON AND MOUNTAIN HOME. LATEST HI-RES CAMS AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TRAINING
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTH ARKANSAS AS
THE TROUGH OFF PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE TODAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCES CONTINUES TO SHOW MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PUSHING
OVER THE STATE DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE DOES POINT
TO SOME SOME SUBTLE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH EACH
SHORTWAVE ONLY BRINGING CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LOOK AT LONGER TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS
SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGHING CONTINUING TO PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 9
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
FROM EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD OUT OF THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES OF KHRO AND KBPK,
FURTHERMORE OUT OF THE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ACROSS ALL SITES INTO THE LATER EVENING ON FRIDAY, THEN RE-
ESTABLISHED OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO OUT OF THE EAST BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 61 89 61 88 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN AR 64 86 65 87 / 0 10 10 20
HARRISON AR 59 84 61 82 / 0 0 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 64 86 66 85 / 0 0 10 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 64 86 66 85 / 0 0 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 65 89 66 89 / 0 0 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 63 85 64 83 / 0 10 10 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 59 87 61 85 / 0 0 0 10
NEWPORT AR 62 89 64 88 / 0 0 0 10
PINE BLUFF AR 62 88 64 87 / 0 0 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 64 88 66 87 / 0 0 10 10
SEARCY AR 62 89 64 87 / 0 0 0 10
STUTTGART AR 62 88 65 86 / 0 0 10 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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