899
FXUS64 KLZK 311120
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
620 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY, THE HOVER AROUND NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
- NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES/COLD
FRONTS BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE WITH JUST A FEW PATCHES
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING. A FEW RADAR RETURNS ARE NOTED OVER FAR WESTERN
ARKANSAS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL STAY DRY THROUGH SUNRISE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SOME CHANCE POPS TO THE STATE ON TODAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS.
BY MONDAY, A FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DIVE
SOUTH WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW AND APPROACHES THE STATE SOMETIME
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS ON MONDAY AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE STATE. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STATEWIDE WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH PRIMARILY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF COOLER AIR USHERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF ARKANSAS MAY
STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH ONLY FAR SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS LIKELY INTO THE MID 80S ON THURSDAY IF
CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS HOLD.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND, ANOTHER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER PARTS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS ON
SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SATELLITE THIS
MORNING SHOWS SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE AT
ANY ONE TAF SITE. WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT WILL PRIMARILY BE OUT
OF THE E/NE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE BY EARLY MONDAY
BRING CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES BUT TIMING/PLACEMENT ISSUES
PRECLUDE PLACEMENT AT NORTHERN TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 88 61 87 62 / 0 0 0 20
CAMDEN AR 89 64 89 63 / 10 10 10 10
HARRISON AR 83 62 80 61 / 10 20 20 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 88 66 86 65 / 10 10 10 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 87 65 85 65 / 0 0 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 91 65 90 66 / 0 0 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 88 65 86 64 / 10 10 10 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 87 61 82 60 / 10 10 10 20
NEWPORT AR 89 62 88 64 / 0 0 0 10
PINE BLUFF AR 89 64 88 64 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 89 66 86 65 / 0 10 10 20
SEARCY AR 89 63 88 63 / 0 0 0 20
STUTTGART AR 89 64 88 64 / 0 0 0 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...KELLY
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