899
FXUS64 KLZK 311654
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1154 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY, THE HOVER AROUND NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
- NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES/COLD
FRONTS BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE WITH JUST A FEW PATCHES
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING. A FEW RADAR RETURNS ARE NOTED OVER FAR WESTERN
ARKANSAS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL STAY DRY THROUGH SUNRISE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SOME CHANCE POPS TO THE STATE ON TODAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS.
BY MONDAY, A FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DIVE
SOUTH WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW AND APPROACHES THE STATE SOMETIME
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS ON MONDAY AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE STATE. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STATEWIDE WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH PRIMARILY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF COOLER AIR USHERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF ARKANSAS MAY
STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH ONLY FAR SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS LIKELY INTO THE MID 80S ON THURSDAY IF
CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS HOLD.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND, ANOTHER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER PARTS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS ON
SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD FROM EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. VCSH HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE WESTERN TERMINALS OF KHOT
AND KADF ALONG WITH THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF KHRO AND KBPK A
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD
WITH AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING LATE IN THE
PERIOD ON MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 61 87 62 84 / 0 20 30 40
CAMDEN AR 64 89 63 88 / 0 20 10 30
HARRISON AR 62 80 61 77 / 20 40 50 50
HOT SPRINGS AR 66 86 65 87 / 10 30 20 40
LITTLE ROCK AR 65 85 65 84 / 0 20 20 40
MONTICELLO AR 65 90 66 89 / 0 10 10 30
MOUNT IDA AR 65 86 64 85 / 10 40 20 40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 61 82 60 81 / 10 20 40 40
NEWPORT AR 62 88 64 84 / 0 10 20 30
PINE BLUFF AR 64 88 64 87 / 0 10 10 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 66 86 65 86 / 10 30 30 40
SEARCY AR 63 88 63 85 / 0 20 20 40
STUTTGART AR 64 88 64 85 / 0 10 20 30
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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