376
FXUS64 KLZK 020737
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
237 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2005
AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS
SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN ON THE SMALLER SIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW OF LATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
AT LEAST, AS THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW WESTERN CONUS
RIDGING AND SUBSEQUENT TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. PATTERN DOES
BEGIN TO RELAX SOMEWHAT AS THE EASTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST. EVEN WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE,
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH LOW LEVEL SURFACE FLOW A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY IN
DIRECTION.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE CWA BUT APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXPECTED.
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY AND
WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS PARTICULAR FRONT WILL BE THE STRONGEST IN
THIS SERIES OF THEM WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS (40 TO 50%) ACCOMPANYING
IT. SOME AREAS OF THE STATE COULD PICK UP A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
MORE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM IT WILL BE THE
COOLER AIR COMING IN BEHIND IT.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE GFS CONSIDERABLY WETTER VERSUS ITS ECMWF COUNTERPART.
HAVE DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW AND TAKE A
WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY TO KLIT AND KPBF OVERNIGHT BUT NO IMPACTS ON OPERATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. WIND OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND MAINLY
OUT OF THE NW AT LESS THAN 10 KTS ON TUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 88 63 90 64 / 10 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 89 65 89 64 / 30 10 20 0
HARRISON AR 82 61 85 61 / 30 10 10 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 88 65 88 64 / 30 10 20 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 87 67 88 68 / 20 10 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 90 67 89 67 / 40 20 20 0
MOUNT IDA AR 86 64 87 63 / 30 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 86 61 88 62 / 20 10 10 20
NEWPORT AR 88 64 89 66 / 10 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 88 65 88 65 / 20 10 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 88 65 90 65 / 30 10 10 10
SEARCY AR 88 65 89 66 / 10 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 88 66 89 66 / 10 10 10 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...56
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