598
FXUS64 KLZK 021736
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1236 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2005
AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS
SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN ON THE SMALLER SIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW OF LATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
AT LEAST, AS THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW WESTERN CONUS
RIDGING AND SUBSEQUENT TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. PATTERN DOES
BEGIN TO RELAX SOMEWHAT AS THE EASTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST. EVEN WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE,
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH LOW LEVEL SURFACE FLOW A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY IN
DIRECTION.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE CWA BUT APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXPECTED.
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY AND
WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS PARTICULAR FRONT WILL BE THE STRONGEST IN
THIS SERIES OF THEM WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS (40 TO 50%) ACCOMPANYING
IT. SOME AREAS OF THE STATE COULD PICK UP A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
MORE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM IT WILL BE THE
COOLER AIR COMING IN BEHIND IT.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE GFS CONSIDERABLY WETTER VERSUS ITS ECMWF COUNTERPART.
HAVE DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW AND TAKE A
WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
AREA RADARS AND SATELLITE SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS WELL. HI-RES CAMS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
SHRA SCOPE AND COVERAGE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, THUS ELECTED
TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THIS SET OF TAFS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS ON WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 63 90 64 86 / 10 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 65 89 64 93 / 10 20 0 0
HARRISON AR 61 85 61 79 / 10 0 30 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 65 88 64 90 / 10 10 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 67 88 68 88 / 10 10 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 67 89 67 94 / 10 30 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 64 87 63 89 / 10 10 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 61 88 62 81 / 10 0 20 0
NEWPORT AR 64 89 66 85 / 10 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 65 88 65 92 / 10 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 65 90 65 89 / 10 10 10 0
SEARCY AR 65 89 66 87 / 10 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 66 89 66 90 / 10 10 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...56
AVIATION...KELLY
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