345
FXUS64 KLZK 030018
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
718 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2005
AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS
SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN ON THE SMALLER SIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW OF LATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
AT LEAST, AS THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW WESTERN CONUS
RIDGING AND SUBSEQUENT TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. PATTERN DOES
BEGIN TO RELAX SOMEWHAT AS THE EASTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST. EVEN WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE,
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH LOW LEVEL SURFACE FLOW A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY IN
DIRECTION.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE CWA BUT APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXPECTED.
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY AND
WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS PARTICULAR FRONT WILL BE THE STRONGEST IN
THIS SERIES OF THEM WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS (40 TO 50%) ACCOMPANYING
IT. SOME AREAS OF THE STATE COULD PICK UP A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
MORE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM IT WILL BE THE
COOLER AIR COMING IN BEHIND IT.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE GFS CONSIDERABLY WETTER VERSUS ITS ECMWF COUNTERPART.
HAVE DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW AND TAKE A
WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF TSRA ACTIVITY. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WERE
CURRENTLY AFFECTING NRN SITES AS OF 00Z, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SHIFT SWRD OVERNIGHT, THEN IMPACT SRN AR TOWARDS/TO JUST AFTER
DAY BREAK. WITHIN CONVECTION, BOTH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS'BYS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE. PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WED WITH
WINDS BECOMING W/NW AT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 63 89 65 87 / 20 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 66 88 65 93 / 20 20 0 0
HARRISON AR 62 84 62 82 / 40 0 20 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 66 87 64 91 / 20 20 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 67 87 67 88 / 20 20 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 67 89 67 93 / 20 30 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 66 88 64 91 / 20 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 63 88 63 84 / 30 0 20 0
NEWPORT AR 63 89 65 87 / 10 10 0 10
PINE BLUFF AR 66 88 65 91 / 20 20 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 66 90 65 90 / 30 10 0 0
SEARCY AR 64 89 65 88 / 20 10 0 0
STUTTGART AR 66 87 66 90 / 20 20 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...70
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