592
FXUS64 KLZK 030550
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1250 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2005
AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS
SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN ON THE SMALLER SIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW OF LATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
AT LEAST, AS THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW WESTERN CONUS
RIDGING AND SUBSEQUENT TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. PATTERN DOES
BEGIN TO RELAX SOMEWHAT AS THE EASTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST. EVEN WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE,
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH LOW LEVEL SURFACE FLOW A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY IN
DIRECTION.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE CWA BUT APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXPECTED.
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY AND
WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS PARTICULAR FRONT WILL BE THE STRONGEST IN
THIS SERIES OF THEM WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS (40 TO 50%) ACCOMPANYING
IT. SOME AREAS OF THE STATE COULD PICK UP A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
MORE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM IT WILL BE THE
COOLER AIR COMING IN BEHIND IT.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE GFS CONSIDERABLY WETTER VERSUS ITS ECMWF COUNTERPART.
HAVE DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW AND TAKE A
WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF TSRA ACTIVITY. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WERE
CURRENTLY AFFECTING CNTRL SITES AS OF 06Z, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE SE OVERNIGHT, THEN IMPACT SRN AR TOWARDS/TO
JUST AFTER DAY BREAK. WITHIN CONVECTION, BOTH REDUCED CIGS AND
VIS'BYS CAN BE EXPECTED, MVFR/IFR AT TIMES, WITH VARIABLE WINDS
AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE. PATCHY FG IS POSSIBLE AT KADF THROUGH 13Z.
PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WED
WITH WINDS BECOMING W/NW AT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 89 65 89 65 / 10 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 87 65 94 67 / 30 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 84 62 83 63 / 10 10 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 87 65 92 67 / 20 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 86 67 91 67 / 20 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 88 67 94 70 / 30 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 87 64 91 67 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 88 63 86 62 / 10 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 89 66 88 65 / 10 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 86 66 93 67 / 20 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 90 66 92 67 / 10 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 88 66 90 65 / 10 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 86 67 91 67 / 20 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...70
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