782
FXUS64 KLZK 031129
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
629 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
- SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTH.
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
- THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN OUR MODELS WITH
THE AMOUNT OF RAIN AND THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
- MUCH COOLER AIR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
LOCAL RADAR NETWORK THIS MORNING IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW. A PAIR OF CELLS
EARLIER THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE
METROPOLITAN AREA.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SLIGHT BUT PERSISTENT MOVEMENT OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
CONTINUING FOR WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH TODAY UNTIL THIS UPPER WAVE
CLEARS LATER TODAY BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA WITH DECREASING CHANCES FURTHER NORTH.
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE WESTERN CONUS RIDGING
AND BROAD TROUGHING TO THE EAST PLACING THE CWA SQUARELY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT. GUIDANCE CONDTIONS TO MOVE ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE
STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL BE AT A
PREMIUM WITH ONLY LOW END CHANCES JUSTIFIED ACROSS THE NORTH. IN
FACT, TEMPERATURES ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO TOP OUT
IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE STATE WHICH ARE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER AS LOW LEVEL WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN.
PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
EASTERN TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AND UPPER FLOW STARTS TO
TURN AROUND TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION. SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH IT BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS MUCH
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS IT APPEARS TO BE TAPPING
INTO A SLUG OF MOISTURE FROM A SYSTEM INITIALLY OVER THE BAJA.
THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH AND BEHIND THE ACTUAL BOUNDARY. THESE DIFFERENCES WOULD
RESULT IN DRASTIC DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS AND HOW LONG
IT ENDS UP LASTING.
WHAT THE MODELS DO AGREE ON IS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ARE LIKELY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY PARTS OF THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST REMAINING IN THE 80S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE CWA THAT SOME SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT OVER THE WEST SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES COMING
BACK LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS SE ARKANSAS BUT
WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE ANY OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ON KLLQ OR KPBF.
OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH WINDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 89 65 89 65 / 10 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 87 65 94 67 / 30 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 84 62 83 63 / 10 10 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 87 65 92 67 / 20 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 86 67 91 67 / 20 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 88 67 94 70 / 30 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 87 64 91 67 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 88 63 86 62 / 10 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 89 66 88 65 / 10 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 86 66 93 67 / 20 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 90 66 92 67 / 10 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 88 66 90 65 / 10 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 86 67 91 67 / 20 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...70
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