079
FXUS64 KLZK 070427
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1127 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
-A MUCH COOLER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE NATURAL STATE AS THE COLD FRONT
HAS NEARLY COMPLETELY THE JOURNEY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
STATE.
-HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE STATEWIDE FROM THE LOW 70S
TO THE LOW 80S.
-A TREND OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ACROSS
THE STATE BEFORE TEMPERATURES OVERALL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES BY MID-WEEK AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY
LATE-WEEK.
-AFTER THE RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING EXITS THE STATE COMPLETELY BY MID-DAY ON SATURDAY, NO
CHANCES FOR ANY RAINFALL ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
IN THE UPPER LVLS, THE DIGGING TROF POSITIONED OVER THE MID-SOUTH
WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN REGION OF THE CONUS. A
TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER ARKANSAS IS EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE AN UPPER LVL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION.
AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND WILL BE
NEARING THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA BORDER BY SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FROPA WILL BE A REGION OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
MOVE INTO REGION AND SUPPLY THE STATE WITH TEMPERATURES OF ROUGHLY 8
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE COMPARED TO NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR WHICH WILL BE FELT ON SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND MONDAY. INTO MID-
WEEK, TEMPERATURES OVERALL AIDED BY A COMBINATION OF EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SFC AND THE UPPER LVL RIDGE MOVING INTO
PLACE OVER ARKANSAS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT WAA THAT WILL PLACE
TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
FINALLY, BY LATE-WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE BECOMING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. A CONCERN LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS THE LACK
OF RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE STATE. ARKANSAS WILL BE ENTERING A PERIOD
OF WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE WORKWEEK COMBINED WITH NO CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT CONDITIONS
MAY BEGIN TO WORSEN IF THIS BECOMES A TREND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINNING EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL SITES.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL SITES TO BEGIN THE
FORECAST UNTIL BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED LATER SUNDAY MORNING OUT OF
THE EAST-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 75 52 84 50 / 30 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 70 57 83 54 / 60 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 76 50 80 50 / 20 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 72 56 82 55 / 50 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 73 57 82 55 / 50 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 68 59 85 56 / 60 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 72 55 82 55 / 50 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 82 50 84 50 / 10 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 72 52 84 50 / 40 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 71 55 84 54 / 40 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 75 55 85 55 / 30 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 72 54 84 52 / 40 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 71 55 83 53 / 30 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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