409
FXUS64 KLZK 082325
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
625 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
-TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ARE TO BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE STATE FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
-INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME NEAR
AVERAGE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
-RAIN CHANCES ARE ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST ACROSS THE STATE OF
ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
A TRANQUIL AND UNSEASONABLY COOL START TO THE WEEK WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND ACROSS ARKANSAS BY MID-WEEK,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE ENTIRE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FROM TODAY (MONDAY) THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
FORECAST IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH THE GFS, ECMWF, AND NAM
ALL IN COHESION REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND THEIR PLACEMENT
WHICH WILL BE THE HARBINGER OF WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ARKANSAS
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MONDAY/TUESDAY:
A PROMINENT UPPER LVL TROF IS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN REGION OF
THE CONUS. AS A RESULT, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SETUP OVER ARKANSAS
WHICH WILL PROMOTE COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE. AT THE
SFC, A CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION AND
ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
COMPARED TO NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY:
BY MID-WEEK, THE TROF POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN REGION OF THE
CONUS WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
SHIFT. AN UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS EXTENDING OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION OF
THE CONUS WHICH WILL POSITION THE RIDGE OVER ARKANSAS. THE RIDGE
WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUTOFF THE INFLUX OF COOL AIR AND LEAD TO A PERIOD
OF SUBSIDENCE AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING LEADING TO A GRADUAL RISE IN
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES OVERALL BY MID-WEEK WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BY 5 TO 8 DEGREES,
ESPECIALLY TRANSITIONING INTO LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
INTO LATE-WEEK AND THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EXTENDING INTO THE MID-SOUTH REGIONS OF THE
CONUS WILL BE FLANKED BY TWO UPPER LVL DIGGING TROFS. THE POSITION
OF THE UPPER LVL TROFS WITH THEIR PRONOUNCED UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN REGIONS OF THE CONUS.
THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LVL PATTERN CONFIGURATION IS KNOW AS AN
OMEGA BLOCK WHICH WILL RESULT IN A STAGNANT PATTERN THAT WILL LOCK IN
THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ARKANSAS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CONTROL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING
S/SE BETWEEN 5-10 KTS ON TUES. SKC ARE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 52 85 59 91 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 53 87 61 92 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 52 83 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 54 85 60 91 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 55 84 62 89 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 57 89 65 93 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 53 85 58 90 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 51 85 57 91 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 52 86 60 91 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 53 87 61 92 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 54 85 59 91 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 53 85 60 91 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 54 86 62 91 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...70
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