271
FXUS64 KLZK 122332
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
632 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
-DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER ARKANSAS LEADING
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND BELOW AVERAGE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
-AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE NEXT
WEEK AND BRING A LOW-END CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS,
BUT MODEL GUIDANCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN RELATION TO THIS
EVENT.
-FAIR, DRY, AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MID-SPTEMBER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
-EXPECT THE WORSENING OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PERSISTING OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
THE CENTER OF A REGION OF UPPER LVL RIDGING WILL SLIDE EASTWARD FROM
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS TO OVER THE MID-SOUTH
REGION OF THE CONUS TRANSITIONING INTO NEXT WEEK. IN RESPONSE, AN
OVERALL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ACROSS THE CWA AND STATE OF
ARKANSAS FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS A FEW LOCATIONS INTO THIS WEEKEND AND
REMAINING INTO NEXT WEEK WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF ARKANSAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TO VALUES AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW 100 DEGREES; THE DRY AIR-MASS IN
PLACE WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM REACHING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, BUT THESE ELEVATED VALUES SHOULD BE TAKEN INTO
CONSIDERATION, ESPECIALLY IF OUTDOORS FOR AN APPRECIABLE AMOUNT OF
TIME DURING THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY.
LATE NEXT WEEK, A WEAK UPPER LVL TROF WILL APPROACH THE REGION, THIS
IS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DEEMED
THIS FEATURE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS OF PLACEMENT AND
INTENSITY. IF THIS LOW CHANCE OF POPS DOES COME INTO FRUITION,
RAINFALL WOULD BE ISOLATED AND RAINFALL TOTALS WOULD BE LIMITED.
A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS ACROSS THE CWA AND STATE OF
ARKANSAS WILL BE THE WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. A COMBINATION OF
HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT FUELS ACROSS
THE STATE AND CONTRIBUTE TO AN OVERALL GREATER RISK OF GRASSFIRE AND
WILDFIRE DANGER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WITH SOME
PATCHY OVERNIGHT FG POSSIBLE AT KHOT AND KADF REDUCING VIS'BYS TO
LOWER-END MVFR AT TIMES. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE ON SAT WITH
SCATTERED DAYTIME CU DEVELOPING. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT, S/SW AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 68 96 67 96 / 0 20 0 0
CAMDEN AR 67 96 66 94 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 68 93 67 93 / 0 20 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 69 96 68 94 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 70 94 69 93 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 70 96 67 96 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 67 95 67 94 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 67 97 67 96 / 0 20 0 0
NEWPORT AR 69 96 68 96 / 0 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 68 96 67 95 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 69 97 69 95 / 0 20 0 0
SEARCY AR 67 96 67 95 / 0 10 0 0
STUTTGART AR 69 95 67 95 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...70
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